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The middleweight belt is on the line in the main event of UFC 293 between champion Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland. Who has the edge? Ben Rajavuori shares his Adesanya vs Strickland predictions, the latest odds, and betting tips at UFC 293.
ANALYSIS

Adesanya vs. Strickland Predictions, Odds & Betting Tips at UFC 293

The middleweight belt is on the line in the main event of UFC 293 between champion Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland. In one of the weirder title fights of 2023, Adesanya finds himself as the biggest favorite of his career, sitting from -650 to -750, depending on your book. Strickland is a massive underdog in this fight, which is not all that surprising, but one thing among others that Sean does have coming into this fight is a unique mind for the sport. Can Strickland pull it off and become the biggest underdog title winner of the year?

Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland Date, Time, and Where to Watch

  • When: Saturday, September 9, 2023
  • Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia
  • Where to Watch: PPV

Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland Odds

  • Moneyline: Adesanya (-750), Strickland (+490)
  • Total Rounds: O 4.5 (+105), U 4.5 (-135)

Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland UFC 293 Prediction

The fact that Sean Strickland is even in this spot for a title shot is wild. Strickland has won two fights in a row, but that was against Abus Magomedov and Nassourdine Imavov. Before that, Strickland lost back-to-back high-profile fights to two title challengers, Jared Cannonier and Alex Pereira, who actually held the middleweight belt before Adesanya took it back in his last fight. The expected matchup for this middleweight title fight was Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya, but Du Plessis did not want the fight this soon, and Adesanya has already beaten the other top contenders, so here we are.

One thing that sets Strickland apart is his unique striking style. He employs a tall stance that limits his use of the rear leg but allows him to consistently create distance. His defensive strategy revolves around sitting and leaning back rather than utilizing exhausting footwork or blocking strikes with his arms/hands. This reliance on reaction time for defense might be unconventional, but it's proven effective for Strickland. He excels at deflecting punches, even if it means letting them get dangerously close to his head. Sometimes, they land and he is rocked or knocked out. Sometimes, it pays off, and he can hit his opponent with devastating counters.

What Strickland lacks in traditional technique, he compensates for with forward pressure. He keeps his opponents on their heels, making it difficult for them to land powerful shots. This approach wears down opponents, sapping their energy as they retreat. Strickland's ability to cut off the cage and launch crisp combinations when opponents are trapped against the fence is one of his best abilities. However, this is what we just saw Adesanya deal with in his fight against Pereira. Adesanya was trapped up against the fence, and he times his counter perfectly to knock Pereira out cold. The same fate could await Strickland if he is not careful.

For Adesanya to retain his title, the path is relatively clear. He must maintain distance and pick Strickland apart for the entire 25 minutes. Strickland, standing three inches shorter and with four inches less reach, will be at a disadvantage if this fight plays out at range, which I am sure he will not accept.

If Izzy engages in the war that Strickland wants, perhaps Sean has a better shot than the books and media are giving him credit for. After all, Sean has the mindset of someone who does not care if he wins or not, and that "nothing to lose" mentality can be a dangerous one to go up against. Sean is a tough opponent to face mentally, and he usually wins the mental battle; it's just a matter of whether he can evade the "big" shots.

At +490 odds, I absolutely think Strickland is worth a very small play. Even a $50 bet returns nearly $300. Even better, Strickland is +750 to win inside the distance, which I love even more. If Strickland does somehow win this fight, it will be because he finishes Adesanya somehow. He's not going to beat Adesanya in a point fight; it's just not his game. However, if he gets crazy enough and can even get this fight to the ground, he is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and can potentially get Adesanya to tap. Or, he could make that forward pressure pay off and knock Izzy out cold, which is something that has only happened to Izzy once, but it was just two fights ago. While Izzy is definitely the rightful favorite and will more than likely win this fight, with the odds reaching levels this high, I am taking the shot on Strickland to pull it off. The odds are just too good.

Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland Betting Picks

.5 Unit Pick: Sean Strickland by KO/TKO or Submission +750 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick

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Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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