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The UFC 300 main event will feature Jamahal Hill and Alex Pereira fighting for the light heavyweight UFC belt. Can Pereira keep the belt? Ben Rajavuori shares his Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill prediction and best bet.
ANALYSIS

Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill Prediction: Can Pereira Keep the Belt at UFC 300?

The main event of the biggest card of the decade so far will feature Jamahal Hill and Alex Pereira fighting for the light heavyweight UFC belt. Jamahal Hill never lost the belt, as he was injured after beating Glover Teixeira in January 2023 last year. The time off vacated the belt, with Alex Pereira stepping up in weight and beating Jiri Prochazka in the second round of the interim championship. With these two fighters looking like the best at 205, what should we expect in this fight tonight?

PEREIRA VS. HILL UFC 300 DATE, TIME AND WHERE TO WATCH

  • When: April 13th, 2024, 10:00 p.m. ET / 7:00 p.m. PT
  • Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: PVV

Click here for the latest Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill odds

ALEX PEREIRA VS. JAMAHAL HILL PREDICTION

Alex Pereira joined MMA after an extensive career in kickboxing. The move was widely speculated to be planned for him to fight Israel Adesanya, as the two met multiple times during their kickboxing careers. When the two met inevitably in November 2022, Alex Pereira knocked him out in the fifth round. A loss in the rematch in 2023 sparked the move for Alex Pereira to step up a weight class and move to light heavyweight. The move has been wildly successful for him so far, beating Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka over his first two fights in his new weight class.

Pereira entered the UFC with massive holes in his MMA game as a former kickboxer, but he has progressed nicely and is working with excellent grapplers like Glover to help round out his MMA game. Pereira is now 6-1 in the UFC with his lone loss coming to Adesanya in their title fight rematch. Seven of those wins have come by knockout.

Pereira will have his hands full against the defending champion Jamahal Hill. Hill is on a four-fight win streak and was on a tear before his Achilles injury (no pun intended). Hill is a crafty striker with heavy hands that has seen him land four knockouts in just eight fights inside the UFC.

Jamahal Hill is a product of Dana White’s contender series, winning in season three by second-round knockout over Alexander Poppeck to get his UFC contract. he has looked impressive ever since that fight, getting to a title shot very quickly with only one loss to Paul Craig stopping him momentarily.

Hill proved in his last fight that he could go five rounds in a main event as he proved so against Glover Teixeira. This will be important for him, as Alex Pereira also has excellent cardio as he used to go many rounds in kickboxing back in the day. While Pereira is getting up there in age, I still think the cardio will be fairly even in this fight. At the end of the day, I expect Pereira‘s better footwork to frustrate Hill, while evading Hill's most powerful shots. Hill has very basic footwork, and while he can hit very hard, better kickboxing from Pereira should keep him out of harms way for most of this fight. I still expect Hill to land a few hard shots every now and then, but Pereira has shown to have a pretty good chin. His knockout against Adesanya was down at 185, which is not his normal weight class. With Pereira's size, 205 is much more suited for him and his chin should hold up much better at this weight class. Given that, I think Pereira pieces Hill up and finishes this fight in the middle rounds or even late in the fifth.

ALEX PEREIRA VS. JAMAHAL HILL PICK

Pick: Alex Pereira ML -130 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

UFC ODDS

Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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