Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest UFC Shanghai Odds
Sergei Pavlovich will look to reassert his dominance in China when he takes on Waldo Cortes-Acosta in the heavyweight bout on the main card. Can Pavlovich continue to reassert himself after dropping two his last three fights? Peter Alexis gives his breakdown on this Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta fight at UFC Fight Night in Shanghai, China on Saturday, August 23rd.
Peter Alexis - August 22, 2025, 5:15 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadSergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest UFC Shanghai Odds
A heavyweight clash with major implications is set for UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 23, 2025. Sergei Pavlovich will look to reassert himself in the division’s upper tier when he faces rising contender Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Taking place at the Shanghai Indoor Stadium, this fight is expected to deliver fireworks between two powerful strikers, each with something to prove. For Pavlovich, it's a chance to rebound after a rocky stretch, while Cortes-Acosta aims to pull off the biggest win of his career and climb into the top ten.
Sergei Pavlovich has long been considered one of the most dangerous punchers in the UFC heavyweight division. With a staggering knockout rate and freakish 84-inch reach, he made his name blitzing opponents in the first round, including Curtis Blaydes and Tai Tuivasa. However, the Russian powerhouse has lost two of his last three, including a knockout defeat to Tom Aspinall and a decision loss to Alexander Volkov. While Pavlovich still possesses devastating power and clean boxing, his recent struggles against top-tier competition have raised questions about his cardio and adaptability when a fight extends beyond the first round.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, on the other hand, is surging with momentum. A former professional boxer turned mixed martial artist, Cortes-Acosta is riding a five-fight win streak and continues to show evolution in his game. Known for his technical striking, consistent output, and improved wrestling defense, he has recently secured victories over notable names like Serghei Spivac and Ryan Spann. Unlike many heavyweights, he maintains a solid pace over three rounds and can handle a firefight or a drawn-out battle. Though less explosive than Pavlovich, Cortes-Acosta’s well-rounded skill set and composure make him a difficult puzzle to solve.
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Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Odds
- Moneyline: Sergei Pavlovich (-260), Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+215)
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, August 23, 2025
- Time: 6:00 AM ET (Main Card Start), 7:15 AM ET (Estimated Fight Time)
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Click here for complete Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta odds
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction
Heading into fight week, Sergei Pavlovich is listed as a -260 favorite, indicating that oddsmakers still view his knockout threat as a major deciding factor. He is expected to start fast, pressure forward, and look to end the fight within the first round or two. Pavlovich’s best performances come when he can control the distance and force exchanges in the pocket. If he lands clean early, there’s a good chance the fight doesn’t go long. His explosiveness and finishing instinct make him a dangerous assignment for anyone, especially if Cortes-Acosta struggles to circle out or manage the range.
However, there’s real reason to believe Cortes-Acosta can weather the storm and turn the tide if the fight drags on. He’s proven he can keep a consistent work rate while staying composed under pressure, something Pavlovich has faltered with in recent bouts. If Cortes-Acosta can survive the opening barrage and take Pavlovich into the second and third rounds, his chances improve dramatically. He may not match Pavlovich’s raw power, but his superior cardio, sharper defense, and volume striking could be enough to tip the balance in his favor.
Given the odds and their respective styles, the best betting approach centers on Pavlovich winning by knockout. It is the most likely outcome, especially if the finish comes early. However, for those looking for value, Cortes-Acosta by decision or even a moneyline play on the underdog is an intriguing option. His well-rounded game and durability give him a legitimate path to victory, particularly if he can drag Pavlovich into deeper waters and take advantage of any cardio issues or defensive lapses.
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Pick
- Pick: Sergei Pavlovich Win by KO/TKO (+110) Click here to get the best UFC odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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