Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest UFC 323 Odds for Flyweight Title Fight
Alexandre Pantoja is looking for a sixth-straight title defense in this UFC 323 Flyweight title bout. Can he avoid the upset from Joshua Van? Let's check out this Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van prediction for UFC 323.
Peter Alexis - December 6, 2025, 9:15 PM EST
5 Minute ReadAlexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Prediction: Can Pantoja Avoid Upset in UFC 323 Flyweight Title Fight
The co main event of UFC 323 brings a high stakes flyweight title clash to T Mobile Arena, where champion Alexandre Pantoja looks to continue one of the most impressive championship runs in recent years. Entering as a -230 favorite, the reigning champion puts his belt on the line against rising contender Joshua Van, who sits as a +190 underdog. With Van riding a five fight win streak and Pantoja undefeated since 2020, this matchup represents both a dangerous test for the champion and the biggest opportunity of Van’s career.
Pantoja’s dominance at flyweight has been nothing short of remarkable. Now 30-5 and the winner of eight straight since his last defeat, he has successfully defended his title five times since claiming the belt in 2023. His style blends relentless scrambling, veteran savvy, and some of the most opportunistic grappling in the division. Van, 15-2, enters with youth, speed, and momentum. At just 22 years old, he has stormed into contention with sharp striking, improved takedown defense, and the confidence of a fighter who has yet to hit his ceiling. The key question is whether that momentum is enough to crack the armor of a champion who has seen it all.
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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Odds
- Moneyline: Pantoja (-230), Van (+190)
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Time: 10:00 PM ET (Main Card Start)
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Click here for complete Pantoja vs. Van odds
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Prediction
For Van to pull the upset, he needs to keep the fight standing, manage distance, and avoid the chaotic grappling exchanges where Pantoja thrives. Van’s striking is fast, accurate, and creative, and he has shown strong composure under pressure. But fighting Pantoja is a different world. The champion’s ability to turn any scramble into a submission threat, his conditioning in long fights, and his comfort in high pace transitions make him uniquely dangerous.
Pantoja’s biggest edge is experience at the championship level. He has gone deep into five round wars and come out on top against elite contenders. Van has never been on a stage this size, never faced a grappler this advanced, and has not yet proven he can survive extended ground sequences with someone who hunts submissions the way Pantoja does. If this fight hits the canvas multiple times, the champion will have major opportunities to take control.
Van’s best moments early may come on the feet, but Pantoja’s pressure, durability, and willingness to push grappling exchanges should gradually wear the challenger down. Once Van begins reacting instead of dictating, the openings for Pantoja’s submission game grow significantly.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Pick
- Pick: Alexandre Pantoja to Win By Submission +150 Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
The champion has too many paths to victory and too much experience in high level title fights. Van’s rise has been impressive, but Pantoja’s grappling advantage and finishing instincts should prove decisive.
MMA ODDS & PICKS
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