Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest UFC 323 Odds in Las Vegas
Henry Cejudo is hoping to not see his career fall away on a fourth-straight loss at UFC 323 in Las Vegas. Can the veteran pull the upset against Payton Talbott tonight? Let's check out this Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott prediction for UFC 323.
Peter Alexis - December 6, 2025, 9:00 PM EST
5 Minute ReadHenry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Prediction: Can Cejudo Snap Three-Fight Losing Streak Near End of Career at UFC 323?
UFC 323 comes to T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night, bringing a high stakes bantamweight showdown between a former two division champion fighting for survival and a rising contender fighting for ascent. Payton Talbott, one of the division’s most promising young strikers, enters as a clear favorite at -250, while Henry Cejudo, the once unstoppable Olympian turned UFC legend, sits as a +205 underdog. With the bright lights of a Vegas main card and legacies on the line, this matchup carries major implications for both careers.
Talbott’s story entering UFC 323 is one of momentum regained. After suffering the first loss of his career at UFC 311 in January, he responded with a strong bounce back win over Felipe Lima in June. Now 10-1 and climbing fast, he steps into his biggest showcase yet, looking to use his athleticism, pressure, and volume to take out one of the most decorated fighters in UFC history. Cejudo, meanwhile, is in desperation mode. The 38 year old has lost three straight and has not won a fight since 2020. What once looked like an all time legacy is now in danger of ending cold if he cannot pull off a major upset tonight.
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Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Odds
- Moneyline: Cejudo (+205), Talbott (-250)
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Time: 10:00 PM ET (Main Card Start)
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Click here for complete Cejudo vs. Talbott odds
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Prediction
Talbott deserves his status as the favorite. His pace, length, and offensive fluidity pose serious problems for an aging Cejudo, especially in prolonged stand up exchanges. Talbott thrives when he can pressure, pump combinations, and keep opponents guessing with constant activity. Against a veteran whose athletic prime has clearly faded, that tempo alone could become the deciding factor.
That said, Cejudo is no ordinary underdog. His championship pedigree, wrestling base, and tactical understanding give him tools that most rising contenders have never had to solve. At his best, Cejudo mixes level changes, feints, cage control, and short range striking with elite precision. The question is whether that version of Cejudo still exists. In his last three fights, his timing has looked slower, his entries more predictable, and his late fight cardio has not held up like it once did.
This matchup comes down to durability and pace. If Talbott keeps the fight standing, uses his length, and avoids clinch or mat exchanges for long stretches, he should dictate the rhythm and outwork Cejudo over the course of three rounds. Cejudo will need takedowns and extended control to swing the momentum, but Talbott has shown improved defensive grappling and the physicality to stay upright against fighters who are no longer explosive.
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Pick
- Pick: Payton Talbott to Win By Decision +105 Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
The athletic gap and current trajectory point toward Talbott. Cejudo’s experience will keep him competitive early, but Talbott’s activity and range striking should give him enough to win rounds. With Cejudo’s chin holding up historically and Talbott not being a one shot finisher, a decision is the most likely path for the favorite.
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