Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest UFC Mexico City Odds for February 28th Co-Main Event
The UFC co-main event gets underway tonight in Mexico City, with Marlon "Chito" Vera looking to snap a three-fight skid against rising contender David Martinez. He's a significant underdog at +260. Can Chito's veteran durability manufacture an upset, or does Martinez's pace take over? Jack Borovitz breaks down the Vera vs. Martinez best bet for UFC Fight Night 268.
Jack Borovitz - February 28, 2026, 2:15 PM EST
4 Minute ReadMarlon Vera vs. David Martinez Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest UFC Mexico City Odds for February 28th Co-Main Event
Chito Vera built his reputation the hard way, winning tough fights against elite competition and earning a title shot. Two years removed from that UFC 299 title challenge against Sean O'Malley, he's sliding down the rankings and running out of runway. Three straight losses will do that. David Martinez, 27 and ascending, gets his biggest test yet in Mexico City. The crowd is his. The odds are his. The question is whether Vera's veteran savvy can manufacture a result nobody sees coming.
Oddsmakers are putting their money firmly on youth. Martinez checks in as a -300 favorite at FanDuel, while Vera sits at +260 with Caesars. Given Chito's résumé, that underdog price is legitimately surprising.
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Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez Odds
- Moneyline: Vera (+260), Martinez (-300)
Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, February 28th, 2026
- Time: 10:10 PM ET (Estimated Fight Time)
- Where to Watch: Paramount+
Click here for complete Vera vs. Martinez odds
Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez Prediction
Vera at 33 is still one of the more durable fighters on the roster. He has never been finished. Every recent loss has gone to the scorecards, and those scorecards have come against O'Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Aiemann Zahabi, nobody soft on that list. He lands 4.25 significant strikes per minute and has the grappling to mix things up, though his takedown rate of under one per 15 minutes tells you he's not leaning on wrestling to carry rounds.
The problem is stylistic. Chito is a slow starter who concedes early minutes and plays catch-up. In a five-round fight that might be workable. In a three-round co-main against a guy with legitimate finishing power, slow starts are a real liability.
Martinez throws at a higher clip, absorbs far less, and defends over 85% of takedown attempts. His 4.85 significant strikes per minute and a defensive rate of just 2.95 strikes absorbed paint a picture of someone who out-works opponents without taking unnecessary damage. His UFC run started with a first-round KO and followed up with a clean decision over Rob Font, a legitimate veteran. Nine straight wins across his MMA career, and the momentum is real.
The size difference adds another layer. Martinez is 5'5" with a 67-inch reach. Vera has three inches and three inches of reach on him. That reach gap could matter in the opening exchanges, and it's the clearest path to a Chito bounce-back. If he establishes range early and makes Martinez eat the jab, rounds start tilting his way.
Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez Pick
- Pick: Martinez by decision (-180) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Vera has never been stopped, and that track record makes a finish by the younger man a long shot regardless of the odds spread. Martinez's best path to victory runs straight through three rounds of outworking Chito on the feet, banking clean, high-volume output across the scorecards. At -175 for a decision win, that's a tighter price than the moneyline but reflects exactly how this fight is likely to play out. Chito's chin keeps this competitive to the final bell. Martinez's pace and activity win it on points.
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