Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest UFC Vegas Odds for Featherweight Fight
Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa will match up on Saturday night in a Featherweight fight at UFC Vegas 117. Can Costa keep up his momentum and secure the upset tonight? Let's take a look at this Allen vs. Costa prediction on May 16th.
OC Staff - May 16, 2026, 6:10 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadArnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Prediction: Can Costa Pull Upset at UFC Vegas 117
Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa meet Saturday night in the main event of UFC Vegas 117 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, with estimated fight time set for 10:45 p.m. ET. Allen is the slight favorite at -130, while Costa comes back at +110 in a five-round featherweight matchup that could push the winner into a much bigger position in the division.
The best bet is Costa moneyline at +110. Allen has the stronger name value and the deeper UFC résumé, but Costa enters with real momentum, a six-fight winning streak, and the kind of kick-heavy pressure that can make this a difficult stylistic fight for the favorite.
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Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Odds
- Moneyline: Allen (-130), Costa (+110)
Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, May 16th, 2026
- Time: 10:45 PM ET
- Where to Watch: Paramount+
Click here for complete Allen vs. Costa odds
Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Prediction
Allen is 20-4 and remains one of the most technical boxers in the featherweight division, but his recent results have created doubt around the price. He has lost three of his last four fights, with the defeats coming against elite competition, and he still has the defensive wrestling, jab, and combination work to win minutes. The concern is whether he can consistently dictate range against a surging opponent who will attack his lead leg and force him to reset.
Costa is 24-7 and stepping into his first UFC main event with the belief that this is his breakout moment. He has won six straight, including a knockout of Dan Ige, and has openly talked about “stealing the show” despite sharing the combat sports weekend with the Rousey vs. Carano Netflix event. That confidence matters because Costa’s game is built around forward pressure, kicks, and damaging exchanges that can change the tone of a fight quickly.
The matchup is close enough that taking the plus-money side makes sense. Allen is cleaner technically and can win rounds if he keeps Costa at boxing range, but Costa has the more dangerous momentum and the more disruptive tools. His leg kicks, body work, and clinch strikes can slow Allen’s movement and make this less about pure boxing. If Costa starts landing early, the favorite’s margin gets thin fast.
Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Pick
- Pick: Melquizael Costa Moneyline (+110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
The best bet is Melquizael Costa moneyline at +110. Allen is respected for a reason, but this is a difficult spot against a confident, ascending fighter who is already talking like he belongs near the top of the division. Costa’s current form, pressure style, and finishing upside make him the right value side to pull the mild upset at the APEX.
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