New Mexico State vs. UMass Prediction: Can Diego Pavia, Aggies Start Strong in Week 0?

New Mexico State vs. UMass Prediction: Can Diego Pavia, Aggies Start Strong in Week 0?

The anticipation for football is palpable as the college football season kicks off this weekend in week zero, and the night slate kicks off with New Mexico State Aggies and the UMass Minutemen playing in Las Cruces, New Mexico. While this may not be the most exciting matchup on the board this Saturday, there is certainly some money to be made in this game. The Aggies are seven-point favorites at the time of writing at most books. Can they cover this spread and start the season off 1-0?

New Mexico State vs. UMass Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: Saturday, August 26, 2023
• Game Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN

New Mexico State vs. UMass Prediction

Last year was a struggle for the UMass Minutemen, finishing with an abysmal 1-11 record. On the other hand, the New Mexico State Aggies managed to finish the 2022 season on a high note with a 7-6 record, including an impressive win over Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl. With the Aggies riding some momentum after finishing 5-1 to finish the season last year, they look poised to maybe make back-to-back bowls this season for the second time in school history.

The Minutemen have struggled on defense quite a bit, but they have been even worse on the offensive side of the ball. With an average of only 12.5 points per game last season, their offense faced significant challenges. The Minutemen were the lowest-scoring offense in the country last year and never made it easy on their defense. However, they've added some potential firepower with the announcement of Taisun Phommachanh as the new starting quarterback. The former ACC player's experience could bring a new dimension to their passing game, which averaged a mere 116.9 yards per game in 2022. Phommachanh will have returning receivers George Johnson and Isaac Ross to throw to, as well as new transfers Anthony Simpson from Arizona and Mark Pope from Jacksonville State.

In contrast, New Mexico State seems to have more stability in its offensive setup. The Aggies closed the 2022 season with an impressive streak of six wins out of seven games. This momentum, combined with the return of most of their offensive production from the previous season, offers them a strong foundation to get back to another bowl game this season. With Diego Pavia at the helm, the Aggies have a quarterback who can make an impact on multiple fronts. In the last six games last season, after Pavia really took over as the QB 1, Pavia amassed 1,128 passing yards (188 per game) and 406 rushing yards (67 per game). The Sophomore really grew into his role in his first season, and I am excited to see how well he does in his junior year with most of the offense returning.

Right now, 65% of bets are on the Aggies on the spread, while slightly over half of the money is on the Minutemen, implying sharp action on UMass. I'm okay riding with the public on this one, as I cannot find a good case to back Umass here. UMass was literally the worst offense in college football last season, and they are 3-37 straight up since 2019. UMass has lost 24 straight road games, and if they lose this game, it will likely be by at least a touchdown. These two programs have met once, with the Aggies winning 23-13 last season and 44-27 in 2022. Both of those were double-digit wins, and this one should be, too.

New Mexico State vs. UMass Pick

Pick: New Mexico State -7 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick

College Football Odds

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