Illinois vs. Kansas Best Bet: Can Luke Altmyer, Fighting Illini Pull Off the Upset?
This is a very interesting power five matchup between Illinois and Kansas, who are two programs that are back on the rise after a long stretch of mediocrity. Who has the edge tonight? Let's break it down.
Joey Ruiz - September 8, 2023, 1:36 PM EDT
7 minIllinois vs. Kansas Best Bet: Can Luke Altmyer, Fighting Illini Pull Off the Upset?
Illinois had a pretty solid season last year as they finished the season with an 8-5 record that culminated in a bowl loss to a ranked Mississippi State squad by a score of 19-10. The thing about Illinois is that they are an extremely hard-nosed team that wants to run the ball and win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Illinois vs. Kansas Date, Start Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: September 8, 2023
- Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN2
Illinois vs. Kansas Prediction
That is the type of identity that Brett Bielema has instilled into this program and so far, it has been working. Last season, Illinois was overall a solid team, and they actually played better on the road than they did at home. They opened the season with a road loss at Indiana in a game that was lined as basically a coin flip and then followed that performance up by beating Wisconsin on the road in Camp Randall by a score of 34-10 and then followed that performance up by beating Nebraska in their own house by a score of 26-9.
Not only were they putting together solid efforts on the road, but they were absolutely dismantling solid teams in their own house, which we do not see very often in college football from evenly matched teams. Illinois then went into the big house last year as 17-point underdogs and nearly notched a monumental upset over Michigan as they dropped a nailbiter by a score of 19-17 and followed that performance up by annihilating Northwestern on the road 41-3.
This Illinois team has a track record of performing well on the road and, in my opinion, got a lot better this year on offense through the transfer portal and are in a great spot to put together a solid performance tonight against Kansas.
Illinois got Ole Miss quarterback transfer Luke Altmyer in the transfer portal in the off-season, and he had a solid game in his Illinois debut. He completed 18-26 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns to go along with one interception, but more importantly, he flashed a keen ability to escape pressure and make plays happen with his legs.
Altmyer was actually Illinois' leading rusher last week, as he tallied 69 yards on nine total carries, so Altmeyer's ability to run the ball could be a key factor tonight. Last week against Toledo, the Fighting Illini were 9-point home favorites and barely escaped with a home win as they kicked a field goal as time expired to start the year 1-0.
Fast forward to this week in a tougher road matchup against a much improved Kansas squad, and I think we will see a much better effort from Illinois. They got hit in the mouth by Toledo and responded accordingly.
Kansas, on the other hand, started their season with an FCS matchup against Missouri State, who is usually a solid FCS program, but they lost their head coach and longtime star QB (Bobby Petrino and Jason Shelley), so this FCS win doesn't look great to me on paper when you look at the stats. Kansas was locked in a somewhat close game (27-17) early into the fourth quarter against this gutted Missouri State team, and I do not think they will be able to just turn it on last in the second half against this Illinois team if they find themselves in a similar position.
This game really feels like it should be lined closer to a Pk or Illinois -1 compared to what it sits at now, with Kansas being favored by over a Field Goal, so I think there is a lot of value on Illinois in this matchup, given their history under Bielema of being a good road team. With that being said, I am rolling with Illinois +4 at -120 for 1.5u as one of my most confident College Football play of the day for tonight's action.
Illinois vs. Kansas Best Bet
1.5u Illinois +4 -120 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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