Appalachian State vs. UNC Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds

Appalachian State vs. UNC Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds

This matchup was absolutely insane last season. Appalachian State was a group of 5 team with a lot of hype coming into the season and were actually 3-point favorites at kickoff against a North Carolina team with a lot of talent but was fairly unproven.

Appalachian State vs. UNC Date, Start Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: September 9, 2023
• Game Time: 5:15 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ACCN

Appalachian State vs. UNC Prediction

The matchup did not disappoint as UNC was up 28-21 at halftime and was up 41-21 in the fourth quarter before the comeback was on. App State went on to score 40 points in the fourth quarter alone, including two touchdowns in the final 30 seconds, before failing on a 2-point conversion in the final seconds of the game, which would have sent the contest into overtime. UNC escaped with a narrow 2-point victory after being one play away from blowing a 20-point fourth-quarter lead.

In that game, UNC allowed App State to rack up 649 total yards of offense and only recorded one sack and one turnover in the game. App State actually led the game in total time of possession and was one play away from forcing overtime.

Fast forward to the present day, and Appalachian State lost their starting quarterback in Chase Brice while North Carolina is now on the national scene after a resounding Week 1 win over South Carolina behind Heisman hopeful Drake Maye. Maye is one of the most talented players in all of college football and, if not for Caleb Williams, would probably be the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft, but he was not the story of their Week 1 win over USC.

Spencer Rattler had nearly no time to throw as he was sacked nine total times by a much-improved North Carolina front seven. The caveat to that, however, was that Rattler was still able to put up 350 total yards and did not throw an interception. Rattler completed 30 of 39 passes for 353 yards, South Carolina actually won the turnover battle 2-0, and Drake Maye threw two interceptions, so how did UNC win by two scores? Simple. They got a great pass rush, and they did not allow South Carolina to establish the run.

I do not believe UNC is as stout of a run defense as they flashed against USC, and their work will be cut out for them against an App State team that has made their ability to run the ball their entire identity over the past few seasons. App State may be going through a QB transition, but they do return Nate Noel in the backfield, who is a very solid back. Noel has rushed for just under 2400 yards and 14 total touchdowns during his time at Appalachian State and, most importantly, has averaged 6.0 yards per carry with 392 total carries under his belt. That is some serious production from Noel over the years, and I think he is primed for a big game Saturday afternoon against this North Carolina front seven.

South Carolina lacked a true identity at the running back position as they were shuffling guys in and out and rotating ball carriers. Noel is a true No. 1 running back and should be able to have success on the ground. And at the end of the day, this is a big-time rivalry game. The battle of North Carolina and a huge revenge spot for Appalachian State after last year's disappointing loss to the Tar Heels, and this spread just feels a bit too large for my liking. With that being said, I am rolling with Appalachian State +20.5 at -115 for 2U as one of my most confident college football plays of the day for today's action.

Appalachian State vs. UNC Pick

2U Appalachian State +20.5 -115 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick

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