UConn vs. Georgia State Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds

UConn vs. Georgia State Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds

Georgia State has been an interesting team over the past few seasons. They have shown improvement in the quality of their program but will have these anomaly games where they lose games they simply shouldn't.

UConn vs. Georgia State Date, Start Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: September 9, 2023
• Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN+

UConn vs. Georgia State Odds

• Spread: UConn +3 (-105), Georgia State -3 (-110)
• Total Odds: O 54.5 (-108), U 54.5 (-110)
• Moneyline Odds: UConn (+130), Georgia State (-140)

UConn vs. Georgia State Prediction

Last year against Charlotte was a prime example where Georgia State was 24-point favorites and gave up 42 points and lost straight up at home. Then they will have games like against JMU, where they put up 40 points on the road as double-digit dogs and show flashes of brilliance on the offensive side of the ball, so they have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde type program.

The thing I like most about Georgia State this year, though, is that they have a lot of continuity on offense. They return their starting quarterback, Darren Grainger, who is extremely dangerous through the air and with his legs. Grainger is a senior and is entering his 3rd year as the starting quarterback of this Panther's team, and he has put up some solid numbers during his tenure as the lead signal caller.

Grainger has tallied just under 5800 passing yards and 54 TDs in his collegiate career compared to just 16 interceptions, and more importantly, he has run for just under 1800 total yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. He is very elusive in the pocket, and Georgia State frequently calls designed running plays for Grainger to exploit mismatches on the defense.

This may be a problem for a UConn defense that had trouble corralling NC State's mobile quarterback, Brennan Armstrong, just one week ago. Last week against NC State, UConn allowed 364 total yards and 209 of those were on the ground. UConn allowed 4.5 yards per rush, and Armstrong was actually the leading rusher for NC State as he tallied 96 yards on 19 carries to go along with two touchdowns on the day. UConn is an average defense at best, and that performance in Week 1 came at home against an NC State offense with entirely new personnel.

Now, they have to go on the road to face a high-powered Georgia State offense with multiple years of continuity at the quarterback and running back positions. I think this could be a long day for the UConn defense, as I think Grainger and Marcus Carroll are going to run all over them.

Now, to talk about the defense for Georgia State... they certainly aren't great. They allowed Rhode Island to throw the ball all over them and put up 35 points as the Rams notched 520 total yards, but 408 of those were through the air. The real issue with this Georgia State defense is with their secondary, as they have a very weak passing defense, but of the front seven held up pretty well.

They held Rhode Island to 112 rushing yards on 3.2 yards per carry, and UConn's main strength is their running game. Their starting quarterback is a former Maine transfer who is below average and is not going to light it up through the air. Victor Rosa is a fine running back for UConn, who ran for 99 yards on nine carries, but 71 of those came on one big run. Take out that one big play and Rosa ran for 28 yards on eight carries for an average of 3.5 yards per carry.

Breaking this game down, UConn's weaknesses on defense are Georgia State's strengths on offense. UConn struggles to stop the run, and the Panthers are going to run it down their throat with Grainger and company. Georgia State's weakness on defense is UConn's weakness on offense. The Panthers struggle to defend the pass, but UConn does not have a strong passing offense, as they possess a below-average starting quarterback and a well-below-average receiving core.

UConn's quarterback and former Maine transfer, Joseph Fagnano, completed just 14 of 26 passes for 113 yards with zero touchdowns and an interception to boot. I simply think this is a bad matchup for UConn and what they want to do, and I see Georgia State coming away with a home win. With that being said, I am rolling with Georgia State ML at -140 for 1.5u as one of my most confident college football plays of the day for today's action.

UConn vs. Georgia State Pick

1.5u Georgia State ML -140 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick

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