Penn State vs. Illinois Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Drew Allar Shine in First Big Ten Start?
Penn State vs. Illinois Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Drew Allar Shine in First Big Ten Start?
Big Noon Kickoff on FOX heads to Champaign, Illinois in Week 3 for a Big 10 matchup between the Penn State Nittany Lions against the Illinois Fighting Illini. The Nittany Lions have been on a tear against inferior opponents, beating West Virginia 38-15 and Delaware 63-7 entering this intraconference road game against a gritty Illinois team.
Led by head coach Brett Bielema and transfer quarterback Drew Altmyer, the Fighting Illini offense has looked good, battling against Kansas and overcoming a late deficit to beat the talented Toledo Rockets 30-28 during a night game in Champaign back in Week 1. Yes, the Jayhawks beat Illinois last week, but it was Jalon Daniels' first game back as QB1 for Kansas, so it was already an uphill battle.
It's good that Illinois experienced that adversity last weekend, because Penn State is firing on all cylinders under head coach James Franklin. The Nittany Lions have allowed 22 combined points through two games, including a matchup against a Power 5 offense, while racking up big plays on offense. Led by sophomore quarterback Drew Allar during his first year as a starter, Penn State sits seventh in current AP Top 25 polls, building the case for a push towards its first College Football Playoff berth.
This should be plenty of motivation to stay up for an early conference road game against Illinois, whose defense has surrendered over 31 points per game, ranking 105th in the FBS. So what's the best bet to make in this Big 10 matchup? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his prediction and pick ahead of Saturday's noon kickoff from Champaign, Illinois.
Penn State vs. Illinois Start Time, Where To Watch, Odds
- Date: Saturday, September 16, 2023
- Game Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Click here for the latest Penn State vs. Illinois Odds
Penn State vs. Illinois College Injury Report
PENN STATE
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
ILLINOIS
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
Penn State vs. Illinois Prediction
The last time these teams played each other, back in 2021, Illinois went into Beaver Stadium as +24.5-point road underdogs and won outright. Franklin won't let his players forget about that loss, so the momentum, combined with the motivation that the Penn State will be playing with, could turn this game into a proverbial bloodbath.
Prior to the 20-18 upset win in Happy Valley, these games had been dominated by Penn State, who won by at least 30 points for three consecutive matchups. Currently, the Nittany Lions are laying 15 points as road favorites in Champaign, where they last won 63-24 under Franklin in 2018 as -27-point road favorites.
As mentioned, Illinois has a good offense and a bad defense, which could put the over in play during this game. Oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook have set the current point total line to 48.5, which feels way too low. However, this could wind up being a 42-0 game by the Nittany Lions. We just don't have full confirmation yet on how good its defense is based on the opponents it's faced through two weeks of action.
Toledo and Kansas also had talented offensive units, which gashed the Illini secondary and defensive line alike. Penn State likes to deploy a run-centric scheme to set up the pass, so they could grind clock with an early lead and sub in starters during the second half. Running back Nicholas Singleton has four rushing touchdowns already, while Kaytron Allen is averaging 5.3 YPC and handling the bulk of carries, creating a dynamic, two-headed committee in the backfield behind Allar.
I think Penn State easily covers -15 on the road in this matchup, with the ability to cover by more than 20, putting alternate spreads with plus odds in play as well. Let's stick to basics though and wager several units on Penn State to win by at least 15 points as road favorites against the Illini on Saturday afternoon.
Penn State vs. Illinois Pick
- Pick: Penn State -15 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.