Maryland vs. Virginia Best Bet: Can Taulia Tagovailoa, Terrapins Run Up the Score?

Maryland vs. Virginia Best Bet: Can Taulia Tagovailoa, Terrapins Run Up the Score?

The Maryland Terrapins host the Virginia Cavaliers as the Terps try and start 3-0 in Taulia Tagovailoa's senior year. Maryland has dismantled Towson and Charlotte heading into this contest, although they did not cover in either meeting. Virginia has started 0-2 in tough fashion, losing to Tennessee and at home to James Madison. The Terps are 15-point favorites with the total set at 47.5 for tonight's game. My favorite bet for this game targets both.

Maryland vs. Virginia Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: September 15, 2023
• Game Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Where to Watch: FS1

Maryland vs. Virginia Prediction

Virginia has not been a very good FBS program recently. That is without question. Virginia was 6.5-point underdog at home against James Madison, who is in their second season in FBS. To Virginia's credit, however, they have been looking better offensively.

Tony Muskett, the team's expected starting quarterback, went out in Week 1 against Tennessee and in cam freshman Anthony Colandrea. Colandrea went 20-26 with 377 yards and two touchdowns against JMU, leading them to a near victory as underdogs. Muskett is expected to be able to start again, but Colandrea may have taken his job.

Virginia is ranked 188th out of 130 FBS teams on defense, per PFF, but they are 52nd in offense. While Virginia has been in very low-scoring games in recent history, this may change as their offense ramps up. This can be explained well by the last game, where the total was just 40 points against JMU, and each team nearly hit the total themselves with a 36-35 final. Virginia's defense ranks 131st in rush success allowed and 110th in pass success. They are just not good anywhere, but with their offense looking better, they can at least keep up with the "bad" teams.

Taulia Tagovailoa is entering his fifth season in college football and his fourth year in Maryland. Tagovailoa now holds the Maryland all-time records in passing yards, single-season passing yards, and passing touchdowns. Tagovailoa is the best quarterback Maryland has ever had, by the numbers, and he is now a true veteran in his senior season. While Maryland has a balanced passing attack led by a veteran QB, they also have a ground game with Roman Hemby.

Roman Hemby appears to be entering the prime of his college career. The sophomore 220 yards on 32 carries, averaging 6.9 yards per carry. He nearly broke the 1,000-yard mark last season, and he should definitely be able to this season. Maryland ranks 22nd in rushing success and 28th in line yards, although it is early in the season, and they have played two bad FBS opponents, although Virginia fits that bill as well.

Taulia and the Maryland offense should run through the Cavalier's defense the whole game. I expect them to put up at least 31 points in this game, as Virginia has one of the worst defenses in FBS. However, Virginia has shown that they have a passing offense that can keep up, and this is a two-touchdown spread.

I'm going to make it a three-touchdown spread by teasing Virginia and the over. You might be wondering why I said Maryland will dominate the Virginia defense, and I am still taking the points with Virginia, but the spread sits over the key number of 14, so teasing Maryland down would not get us under a touchdown. However, Maryland has not covered the spread in either of their first two games against bad programs, and Virginia can keep this game within three touchdowns. Teasing the over gets us down to 40.5 points, which is just five touchdowns and two field goals, or six touchdowns, which is easily doable with Maryland's pace and Virginia's ability to claw back. If I had to guess, this game ends around 31-17, or somewhere close to that. If you can't tease on your book, take alternate lines parlayed. On FanDuel, Virginia +22.5 and over 41.5 alternate lines parlayed is -102.

Maryland vs. Virginia Best Bet

Pick: Virginia +22 and Over 40.5 7-point Teaser -125 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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