Notre Dame vs. Duke Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Sam Hartman, Fighting Irish Bounce Back?
Notre Dame vs. Duke Prediction, Pick, Odds:
Don't look now, but the Duke Blue Devils are 4-0 and ranked 17th in the AP heading into a prime-time home game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. After a hot start, Notre Dame fell victim in a hard-fought, low-scoring, gritty game at home to Ohio State, surrendering the go-ahead touchdown from the one-yard line with one second left on the game clock.
Sam Hartman's decision to transfer from Wake Forest to play for the Fighting Irish has resulted in him recording 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions, including an additional two rushing touchdowns, to enter the Heisman Trophy conversation. He still recorded a touchdown and zero turnovers against the Buckeyes, despite the loss, but Hartman will have to regroup quickly against an underrated Duke defense.
Upon closer inspection, the Blue Devils have allowed the fourth fewest points to opponents this year, surrendering 8.8 points per game. This includes their 28-7 rout of Clemson at home in Week 1, which has led to three more consecutive blowouts against teams like Northwestern and UConn.
Despite the impressive wins, oddsmakers still value Notre Dame as a considerable favorite at -192 moneyline odds, while they are laying 5.5 points ATS. The point total line is set to 51.5, which has gone under in each of these team's previous two head-to-head matchups.
Will the Blue Devils continue to roll despite being 5.5-point underdogs at home? Or will Notre Dame find a way to bounce back after a disappointing loss to Ohio State? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his latest prediction and pick for what is expected to be one of the top games on the Week 5 college football slate.
Notre Dame vs. Duke Start Time, Where To Watch, Odds
- Date: Saturday, September 30, 2023
- Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ABC
Notre Dame vs. Duke Odds
- Spread: Notre Dame -5.5 (-110), Duke +5.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 51.5 (-115), Over 51.5 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: Notre Dame (-192), Duke (+158)
Notre Dame vs. Duke College Injury Report
Notre Dame
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
Duke
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
Notre Dame vs. Duke Prediction
Duke likes to win its games by controlling the line of scrimmage and winning in the trenches. The Blue Devils, led by second-year head coach Mike Elko, have recorded at least three rushing touchdowns in every game this season, racking up five rushing touchdowns with a 6.7 YPC average on 40 carries against Northwestern.
Duke quarterback Riley Leonard has done enough to be a competent signal-caller, despite only throwing one touchdown. His legs are an asset in Duke's run-centric scheme, as Leonard has recorded four rushing touchdowns, including the most notable run against Clemson back in Week 1, where he bounced off of several tacklers and dusted the rest of the defense with his second effort.
The Irish have a better quarterback in terms of production, but they also have the benefit of playing behind one of the best offensive lines in college football. Audric Estime, Notre Dame's RB1, is a bruising, physical runner with elite burst and vision, so it'll be Duke's top priority to stop Estime from ripping off chunk plays on the ground. So far, Duke has held two of its opponents to zero rushing touchdowns, including Clemson, while tightening up its pass defense.
Hartman versus Duke's secondary will be the key matchup in this game. He's yet to throw an interception, while the Blue Devils have logged four interceptions and four fumble recoveries through eight games. This feels like a game that could see one team jump out early, before the other gets into a rhythm, trading scoring possessions.
Duke is 3-1 ATS and they are getting 5.5 points ATS as home underdogs in prime time yet again. Expect Elko to keep his team motivated against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish defense has struggled a bit in the past three weeks, giving up two touchdowns in each of these games, including multiple rushing touchdowns to Central Michigan and Ohio State. This plays into the bread and butter of the Blue Devils' run-centric, ground-and-pound identity, which will melt the clock and keep the score close.
Notre Dame's confidence may be tarnished after allowing Ohio State to drive down the field on the final possession last week, and now, they get a prime-time road matchup against a tough-nosed Duke team that plays hard on offense and forces turnovers on defense. Let's take Duke and the points at +5.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Notre Dame vs. Duke Pick
- Pick: Duke +5.5 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.