Louisville vs. NC State Prediction: Can We Expect a Shootout Tonight?
Louisville vs. NC State Prediction: Can We Expect a Shootout Tonight?
NC State comes into this game with a record of 3-1 which looks okay in a vacuum when you consider their only loss is to Notre Dame, but they have not passed the eye test so far. The Wolfpack had higher expectations this season with QB Brennan Armstrong, and it just has not turned into an explosive offense yet as they have been very anemic on that side of the ball while still winning games.
Louisville vs. NC State Date, Time and Where To Watch
- Date: September 29, 2023
- Game Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Louisville vs. NC State Prediction
NC State is also 0-4 against the spread this season and has yet to cover a game. This is even more alarming when you consider that three of their games have come against UConn, VMI, and Virginia, three really bad teams. I don't want to say this will be NC State's toughest challenge of the season, as they have already faced Notre Dame, but this will be no cake walk against a Louisville team who has flashed a very explosive offense.
Louisville's running back, Jawhar Jordan, is averaging nearly ten yards a carry and is as explosive as a running back as they come in College Football. Louisville's quarterback this season is Jack Plummer who is a transfer from Purdue and has done an excellent job of taking advantage of the play action pass created from the success of the running game with Jawhar Jordan.
Against Boston College, this offense was firing on all cylinders as they scored on every possession in the first half and finished the game with 56 total points as Plummer finished the game with an impressive stat line of 18-21 and 388 yards and five touchdowns. While this was a breakout game for Plummer and the Louisville passing game, he had been pretty inconsistent up until that point.
In their three games prior to their blowout of Boston College, Plummer had yet to top 247 yards in a game and had also thrown four interceptions, including two against FCS Murray State. This will be the toughest defense Louisville has faced on the season by far and it was not encouraging that Plummer did not throw the ball very well against Murray State, Indiana, and Georgia Tech who are all well below average defenses. Louisville has also been a very slow offense this season as they have been averaging 29.0 seconds per play which is ranked 114th out of 133 FBS teams.
When you think of Louisville, you tend to think of an up-tempo offense with a spread passing attack but that has not been the case this season. The NC State defense has been the strength of their team this season and I do not think Louisville is going to go on the road and run all over them like they did against Boston College.
On the flip side, the NC State offense has been extremely anemic this season and has yet to score more than 24 points against an FBS opponent this season. Both teams also feature an above average rushing rate on offense, so what is this all a recipe for? I believe we see a a much lower scoring game than people anticipate with both defenses being above average with both offenses having a fairly high rush rate. With that being said, I am rolling with the full game Under 56.5 at -108 for 1.5u in this matchup between Louisville and NC State as one of my most confident College Football Plays of the Day.
Louisville vs. NC State Pick
1.5u Under 56.5 -108 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.