Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction: Can the Gamecocks Stop Nicholas Vattiato, Blue Raiders?
Jacksonville State is entering their first season into the FBS and it has been a seamless transition for Rich Rodriguez and the Gamecocks. Can they grab a win on the road in this midweek conference USA matchup? Let's break it down.
Joey Ruiz - October 4, 2023, 1:55 PM EDT
7 minJacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction: Can the Gamecocks Stop Nicholas Vattiato, Blue Raiders?
Jacksonville State comes into this midweek matchup with a record of 4-1 and are following up an insane comeback win against Sam Houston State last week. In that contest the Gamecocks were trailing 21-7 at the half and were down by eight with less than 20 seconds before Logan Smothers was able to connect with Perry Carter for the game tying score and subsequent two-point conversion to send the game to overtime.
Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 4, 2023
- Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPNU
Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction
Jacksonville State showed a lot of resiliency in this game as they did not lead for a single second of regulation but were able to come up big in the clutch in the waning seconds of the game and in overtime as they scored a touchdown on the second play to take their first lead of the game. The Jacksonville State defense let them down a bit in this contest as they allowed 435 yards to a very anemic Sam Houston State squad, who also dominated the time of possession in this game.
Even after this below average defensive game, the Gamecocks are still ranked 11th in the nation in defensive yards allowed per play (4.3) and are ranked 15th in opponent third down percentage as their opponents are only converting 29.7% of their third downs against them this season. The ability to get off the field on third downs and force field goals in the red zone on third down is paramount when you are trying to win games on the road against tough opponents.
Middle Tennessee State has been a middle of the pack team at converting third downs this season but we saw them really struggle to convert on third and fourth down against a very weak Western Kentucky defense last week, so I anticipate Middle Tennessee sill struggle to convert third and longs to sustain drives in this game.
Jacksonville State has also done a pretty good job this season of getting pressure on the quarterback as they are ranked 40th in sack percentage. Middle Tennessee's quarterback, Nicholas Vattiato, has had a tough time finding success this season as he has yet to defeat an FBS opponent and the Middle Tennessee offense as a whole is only averaging 14.75 points against FBS opponents... not very good when you consider two of those games came against Western Kentucky and Colorado State who have well below average defensive units.
Middle Tennessee State is ranked 120th in yards per passing attempt this season so their passing offense has just not gotten on track. If Middle Tennessee cannot stretch the field with their downfield passing game, it could be a very long day for the Blue Raiders as Jacksonville State is very stout at stopping the run.
On the other side of the ball, Middle Tennessee State has been just as inefficient on defense. Middle Tennessee State is allowing 5.6 yards per play on defense and simply does not pass the eye test of being an above average group.
Jacksonville State also has all the momentum coming into this game after their overtime thriller against Sam Houston State and they should be able to parlay some of that momentum into a stronger/faster start tonight. With that being said, I am rolling with Jacksonville State +3.5 at -110 for 1.5u as my most confident College Football Play of the Day for tonight's action.
1.5u Jacksonville State +3.5 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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