Sam Houston State vs. Liberty Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds

Sam Houston State vs. Liberty Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds

Liberty comes into this matchup undefeated, but they have not really been tested in any way shape or form. Their wins have come against Bowling Green, New Mexico State, Buffalo, and FIU who have a combined record of 9-13. The best team they have faced up until this point is probably New Mexico State and even they are still a well below average team.

Sam Houston State vs. Liberty Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: October 5, 2023
• Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
• Where to Watch: CBSSN

Sam Houston State vs. Liberty Odds

• Spread: Sam Houston State +21 (-110), Liberty -21 (-110)
• Total Odds: O 45.5 (-110), U 45.5 (+100)
• Moneyline Odds: Sam Houston State (+920), Liberty (-1250)

Sam Houston State vs. Liberty Prediction

Liberty has been getting it done on both sides of the ball though as they have won every game by at least 10 points and are coming off a blowout win against Florida International by the score of 38-6. Liberty is ranked eighth in the nation in offensive yards per play (7.2) and yards per rushing attempt (6.0) as they have done a lot of their damage on the ground. The caveat to those numbers however is that the four teams they have played are all dreadful at stopping the run.

All four of their opponents are ranked 85th or worst in yards allowed per rush this season including Buffalo who is the third worst team in the nation at stopping the run as they are allowing 6.6 yards per carry. No wonder Liberty had so much success.

Sam Houston State has played a fairly tough schedule to this point and actually did a very good job at stopping the run against BYU and Air Force. The Bearkats defense held BYU to 3.3 yards per rush and 4.4 yards per pass in a game where they only allowed 14 total points on the road in a tough environment in their first ever game as an FBS opponent. That's a pretty solid showing by their defense and they followed up that solid performance with another strong showing against Air Force as they held the Falcons to 4.1 yards per rush and 4.7 yards per passing attempt.

Since that game, Air Force has scored 39, 45, and 49 against Utah State, San Jose State, and San Diego State and SHSU was able to hold this high-powered Air Force offense to just 13 points, and 10 of those 13 points came in the fourth quarter. Sam Houston State's defense has proven that they belong but their offense is what has been the issue. They only scored three combined points against BYU and Air Force and then were only able to put up one measly touchdown against a so-so Houston defense, but their offense came alive against Jacksonville State.

In that game against the Gamecocks, SHSU was able to put up 28 points and 435 total yards of offense. They were unable to get the win as they dropped the game in overtime but this was a great showing by their offense and a big step in the right direction right as it was looking as if their offensive unit had no hope. Another thing Sam Houston State has done a great job of this year is getting off the field on defense on third downs.

The Bearkats held BYU, Air Force, and Jacksonville State to a combined 14-45 (31%) on third and fourth downs. Liberty has done a good job of converting third downs this season, albeit against terrible opponents, but I do not think they are going to have the same success on third downs tonight against the Bearkats defense. Liberty's QB, Kaidon Salter, is only completing 58% of his passes this season and will need to improve upon that if they want to move the ball consistently.

Liberty has also played some of their lesser ball at home this season as they were only able to defeat Bowling Green by ten and were in somewhat of a rock fight with New Mexico St. at the half as they were only up by six before pulling away late. There is no question that Liberty is the more talented team here, but they have made a habit of playing up or down to their opponents.

This was evident last season as they went on the road and beat Arkansas and nearly beat Wake Forest as well but needed four overtimes to beat Southern Miss and was only able to beat FCS Gardner Webb by a point. They have not done well as big favorites, and I think this Sam Houston State defense will rise to the occasion tonight and keep them in this game. With that being said, I am rolling with Sam Houston State +21.5 at -115 for 1.5u as my most confident College Football Play of the Day for tonight's action.

Sam Houston State vs. Liberty Pick

1.5u Sam Houston State +21.5 -115 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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