Nebraska vs. Illinois Prediction: Can Luke Altmyer, Illinois Finally Get On Track?
Illinois has had a tough start to their season as they enter this matchup with a record of 2-3 but are 0-5 ATS as they have failed to cover in any game they have played to this point. Will that change tonight? Let's break it down.
Joey Ruiz - October 6, 2023, 2:43 PM EDT
7 minNebraska vs. Illinois Prediction: Can Luke Altmyer, Illinois Finally Get On Track?
Illinois has had a tough go of it so far as they are 2-3 and really could be 0-5 as their two wins against Florida Atlantic and Toledo were narrow victories by a combined ten points. Illinois has also been very bad against the spread this season as I mentioned above as they have yet to cover a game so far.
Nebraska vs. Illinois Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 6, 2023
- Time: 8:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: FS1
Nebraska vs. Illinois Prediction
As a betting favorite, they are 0-2 ATS as they defeated Toledo by two points on a last second field goal as an eight-point favorite and defeated Florida Atlantic 23-17 as a 16.5-point favorite in a game that FAU was actually up 10-0 in entering the second quarter. Illinois has been average at best on both sides of the ball but where they have really fallen short is on the defensive end. They allowed 44 points to Purdue, 34 to Kansas, and 30 to Penn State and Toledo. They have failed to keep any power 5 team they have faced this season under 30 points which is very uncharacteristic for a Bret Bielema coached team that prides themselves on playing good defense and running the ball.
Speaking of running the ball, they have not done a very good job at that either. They are 68th in the country in rushing yards per game and are only averaging 4.3 yards per rush on the season. What is even more surprising than that however is the play calling for the Illini this season. Illinois is more of a passing team this year as they are only running the ball 47% of the time (91st in the country) and the passing game with Luke Altmyer has not been very successful either, so their whole game plan this season has been a bit of a head scratcher. Altmyer is a transfer from Ole Miss who had a lot of hype coming it but it simply has not materialized into wins or offensive success.
Against Penn State, Altmyer was under duress all day and threw four interceptions as he was basically the reason they lost. So far on the season, Altmyer is completing 65% of his passes averaging 215 yards per game with five touchdowns compared to seven interceptions. The poor decision making from Altmyer and inability to protect the football has undoubtedly led to some of their failures as an offensive unit and I am not sure they will clean it up that fast tonight against a fairly solid Nebraska defense.
Illinois is averaging a turnover margin of -1.2 per game which is ranked 122nd out of 133 qualified FBS teams and it is very likely that Nebraska forces multiple turnovers again tonight. On the season, Nebraska also enters this game with a record of 2-3 as they have losses to Michigan, Colorado, and Minnesota under their belt with wins against Louisiana Tech and Northern Illinois. The Nebraska defense has been the strong suit of their team as they are ranked 23rd in opponent yards per play (4.6), 13th in opponent rushing yards allowed per game (87), and 11th in yards allowed per rush (2.9 ypc).
So, it is safe to say that the Huskers have done a good job at stopping the run and if they are able to slow down the Illinois run game, I am not sure that Altmyer can make enough plays with his arm to consistently move the ball. Nebraska has also done a very solid job at rushing the passer as they are ranked 54th in sack percentage and have limited big plays in the passing game as well as they are ranked 26th in yards allowed per passing attempt (6.3).
The Nebraska offense is hard to judge as a whole because Jeff Sims started the season as the starting quarterback but now Heinrich Haarberg has taken over the last three games and has actually done a pretty good job. Haarberg is a 6'5 215 sophomore with a lot of upside and has made a lot of plays with his feet along with his arm this season. Against Louisiana Tech and Northern Illinois, he averaged just under 128 yards on the ground and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the season. That is a pretty solid number even after rushing nine times for -2 yards against Michigan last week.
In three total starts, he is averaging 233 total yards passing + rushing and has only turned the ball over twice in those three starts. Not too bad considering one of those games came against the best defense in the country. Overall, I think the market has just been off on Illinois this season and I think they are much worse on both sides of the ball than people assume them to be.
Nebraska has played tougher top end competition and has been much more competitive overall this season. They also have the much better defense which travels on the road. With that being said, I am rolling with Nebraska +3.5 at -113 for 1.5u as my most confident College Football Play of the Day for tonight's action.
Nebraska vs. Illinois Pick
1.5u Nebraska +3.5 -113 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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