New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston State Betting Pick: Will Sam Houston's Struggles Continue?
New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston State Betting Pick: Will Sam Houston's Struggles Continue?
The New Mexico State Aggies host the Sam Houston Bearkats from Aggie Memorial Stadium. The Aggies come into this game with a 3-3 record and a 1-1 conference record. The Bearkats have been having a rough time in their first season of FBS play, struggling with an 0-5 record, including 0-2 in conference play. Can the Aggies take care of business tonight as 3.5-point favorites?
Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 11, 2023
- Game Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Where To Watch: CBSSN
Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State Odds
- Spread: Sam Houston State +3 (+100), New Mexico State -3 (-120)
- Total Odds: Under 42 (-106), Over 42 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Sam Houston State (+146), New Mexico State (-165)
New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston State Prediction
Sam Houston has started their FBS campaign 0-5, although they have played some tough opponents. They started their year on the road at BYU, losing 0-14 while displaying some good defense. The next week, they played Air Force, losing 3-13, but again, showing good defense. In week three, they did not catch a break, playing on the road against Houston, losing 7-38. Their offense looked anemic through the first three weeks, scoring a combined 10 points in their first three games. However, they were playing formidable opponents.
Once conference play started, Sam Houston's offense found some life. They played Jacksonville State, who is 5-2, and lost 28-35, finally showing signs of improvement. They lost to Liberty last week, who is 6-0 and 4-0 in conference play, by a score of 16-21. Their two most competitive games so far were in the last two weeks against top-level conference opponents, while both losses were one-score games. New Mexico State will be the easiest game on the schedule for Sam Houston so far this season.
New Mexico State bounced back from their second loss in three weeks with a 34-17 win over FIU last week, who is now 0-3 in conference play. The Aggies are led by their ferocious rushing attack that has amassed 1,202 yards on the ground through six games. Leading the ground attack is dual-threat QB Diego Paiva, who has 314 rushing yards on 61 carries for 5.1 YPC to add to his 1,329 passing yards on the season. Monte Watkins (292 rushing yards) and Star Thomas (258 rushing yards) round out the backfield that ranks first in line yards and third in the nation in rushing success.
The storyline here is the Aggies as just a field goal favorite against an 0-5 team. The Bearkats have horrible metrics, but they have played a WAY tougher schedule through five games than the Aggies. The Sam Houston defense is a strong unit that can slow down the Aggie's rushing attack, which is the key to stopping them from moving the ball down the field. The Aggie defense may be the worst the Bearkats have so far this season, and they should be able to score in this game. Don't let the 0-5 record fool you, Sam Houston just played two of the top three teams in the conference (Liberty and Jacksonville State) and lost by one possession in each. Sam Houston may very well win this game outright.
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston State Pick
- PICK: Sam Houston State +3.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
College Football Odds
Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.