Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky Best Bet: Can the Gamecocks Bounce Back?

Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky Best Bet: Can the Gamecocks Bounce Back?

We saw Jacksonville State in a Conference USA showdown last week against Liberty and fought hard in the first half before Liberty took control late in the game. Can Jacksonville State bounce back tonight against Austin Reed and the Hilltoppers high powered offense? Let's break it down.

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: October 17, 2023
• Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where To Watch: ESPNU

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Odds

• Spread: Western Kentucky -7.5 (-106), Jacksonville State +7.5 (-105)
• Total Odds: O 59.5 (-110), U 59.5 (-104)
• Moneyline Odds: Western Kentucky (-286), Jacksonville State (+260)

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Prediction

Western Kentucky enters this matchup with a record of 4-2 with one of their losses coming on the road in the shoe against Ohio State and the other being a narrow 3-point road loss against Troy.

Western Kentucky has also been solid against the number this year as they are 4-2 ATS and 2-1 ATS on the road. While they are on a 2-game winning streak against Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana Tech, their wins came in less than impressive fashion. The Hilltoppers were up 35-7 at the break against Louisiana Tech as they scored 35 unanswered and absolutely mauled them through the first 2 quarters of that game. Things did not continue to trend that way in the second half though as they simply parked the bus like the game was over and essentially let the Bulldogs back in the game. Western Kentucky only gained 1 offensive first down in the second half that did not result from a penalty as they were outscored 21-0 and nearly blew the game before getting an interception to seal the win on Louisiana Tech's last-ditch effort late in the 4th.

While I am sure WKU was happy to escape with a win, that second half gave me a lot of pause for concern when evaluating this Western Kentucky squad. They simply stopped playing and stopped being aggressive which is also on the coaching staff as well but that also needs to be evaluated when handicapping games with them going forward.

They will be tasked with facing a much better defense tonight as Jacksonville State has caused a lot of havoc and turnovers on that side of the ball. Jacksonville State is currently ranked 27th in the FBS in opponent yards allowed per play (4.8), 13th in opponent yards per carry (3.1), 33rd in opponent 3rd down conversion rate (34%), and 10th overall in sack percentage.

This Jacksonville State defensive unit is doing a great job of stopping the run and then are getting ample pressure on the quarterback to boot in obvious passing downs. This is the perfect recipe against a Western Kentucky team who does not run the ball very well and throws the ball in a spread offense for a majority of their plays. Jacksonville State is also averaging two takeaways per game this season so I fully expect them to force a few Hilltoppers turnovers tonight. Western Kentucky only runs the ball on 36% of their snaps/plays which is 129th out of 133 FBS teams so they do not run the ball a ton and are not very effective when they do run the ball as they are averaging only 4.1 yards per rush which is 67th in the country.

While Western Kentucky has not given up a lot of sacks on the season, they have not faced many teams with a good pass rush so their very low sack percentage on offense is a bit misleading. Ohio State sacked Austin Reed twice and were able to force four total turnovers and while Jacksonville State is nowhere near comparable to the Ohio State defense in terms of talent, they do play a similar style in that they both get consistent pressure on the QB and force a lot of turnovers.

On the defensive side of the ball, Western Kentucky has not done a good job at stopping the run, which is exactly what Jacksonville State wants to do all night. Western Kentucky is allowing 4.9 yards per carry which is 108th in the country. Jacksonville State has been running somewhat of a dual quarterback system between Logan Smothers and Zion Webb but the main constant in this offense is that they want to run the ball and run the ball a lot. Jacksonville State runs the ball on 61% of their plays/snaps which is 13th in the nation, and they have run with fairly great success as they are averaging 4.5 yards per carry which is ranked 42nd.

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Pick

Overall, this game comes down to strength and weaknesses and I think Jacksonville State's strengths of running the ball effectively on offense and getting pressure on the QB/creating turnovers on defense matches up well against WKU's weak run defense and turnover prone offense. With that being said, I am rolling with Jacksonville State +9 at -111 for 1.5u as my Most Confident College Football Play of the Day for tonight's action. I also like +7.5/8 as well but found a solid +9 at nearly the same price.

Pick: Jacksonville State +9 -111 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick

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