Wisconsin vs. Illinois Prediction: Can Braedyn Locke, Badgers Bounce Back?

Wisconsin vs. Illinois Prediction: Can Braedyn Locke, Badgers Bounce Back?

Wisconsin suffered a tough loss to Iowa last weekend in a very low scoring/grind of a game. Can they bounce back today against Illinois who is coming off of their most impressive win of the season? Let's break it down.

Wisconsin vs. Illinois Date, Time and Where to Watch

• Date: October 21, 2023
• Time: 3:30 pm ET
• Where to Watch: FS1

Wisconsin vs. Illinois Prediction

Wisconsin suffered a tough loss to Iowa last weekend, as mentioned above, by the lowly score of 15-6 as they could not score an offensive touchdown against the Hawkeyes. To add insult to injury, the Badgers also lost their starting quarterback for the immediate future as Tanner Mordecai broke his hand in the loss and will be out for possibly the rest of the season.

The Badgers' backup, Braedyn Locke, stepped up and did just about as good as anyone could have expected as he threw for 122 yards on 4.1 yards per attempt with an interception to boot. This was Locke's first action as a college quarterback. He did quite well when you consider it was against an Iowa Hawkeyes secondary that is one of the best defensive coverage units in the country.

While the loss of Mordecai for the Badgers will loom large, I do not believe it is a death sentence for this Wisconsin team. Their offense was already anemic with Mordecai at the helm and maybe a change of pace will jump-start this offense and force other guys to step up. Locke gets a favorable matchup in his first start for the Badgers as the Illinois defense has been dreadful this season.

The illini are currently ranked 80th in yards allowed per game, 105th in opponent 3rd down conversion rate, and 74th in yards allowed per carry. They are also coming off their best defensive game of the season as they defeated Maryland as 14-point underdogs and only allowed a total of 24 points.

While Illinois did grab the outright win against Maryland, the Terrapins actually outgained them 380 to 337, and if not for a missed field goal and some bad red zone execution, they would have won the game.

Illinois has been pretty much overmatched against every Power 5 opponent they had faced until the Maryland game as they got blown out by Kansas, Penn State, Purdue and Nebraska by a combined average margin of defeat of 16.5 points.

Illinois has had trouble with turnovers on offense this season as the downfield passing game with Luke Altmyer has simply been a failed experiment. They have also had issues finishing drives as they were only able to accumulate a total of 7 offensive touchdowns in 4 games against Kansas, Penn State, Purdue, and Nebraska. Things do not get much easier tonight for the Illini against a Wisconsin defense that is once again one of the better units in the Big Ten.

The Wisconsin defense is currently ranked 23rd in yards allowed per play (4.7), 14th in opponent points per play, 34th in opponent 3rd down conversion percentage, and 14th in yards allowed per passing attempt. The Badgers' defense is also forcing 1.7 turnovers per game and I fully expect them to force multiple turnovers against a very turnover-prone Illinois offense. Illinois has simply not passed the eye test in any capacity this season and Maryland is a team that has played down to their competition, so it was not shocking to see Illinois notch an upset victory over the Terrapins last week.

I fully expect Illinois to regress back to their mean as one of the worst teams in the Big Ten and I do not expect the Wisconsin offense to skip a beat, even without Mordecai and with a freshman QB making his first career start. With that being said, I am rolling with WISCONSIN ML at -128 for 3U as my first 3U Play of the College Football Season and my Most Confident Play of the Day for tonight's action as I expect the Badgers to take care of business this afternoon.

Wisconsin vs. Illinois Pick

• PICK: 3 units - WISCONSIN (-128) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds