Penn State vs. Maryland Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can the Terps Slow Down Drew Allar, Nittany Lions Offense?
Big Ten opponents Penn State and Maryland will face off on Saturday's Week 10 slate. Can the Terps slow down Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions' offense? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay answers.
Matt MacKay - October 30, 2023, 10:19 AM EDT
5 minPenn State vs. Maryland Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can the Terps Slow Down Drew Allar, Nittany Lions Offense?
Big Ten opponents Penn State and Maryland will clash in College Park, Maryland on Saturday's Week 10 late afternoon college football slate.
The Nittany Lions have looked underwhelming since their 20-12 loss at Ohio State, falling into a deficit early against Indiana to wind up only winning by nine points, despite being -31.5 ATS. Maryland has also regressed significantly following their loss at Ohio State as well, losing two consecutive games outright to Illinois and Northwestern.
Penn State remains No. 9 in the country but its offense has been getting questioned for a few weeks now, lacking explosive plays downfield and keeping quarterback Drew Allar protected against the 67th-ranked schedule in the FBS. The Terrapins have played an even softer collective schedule this season at 89th out of 133 FBS programs, routing Towson, Charlotte, Virginia, Michigan State, and Indiana before failing to cover +19.5 ATS against the Buckeyes.
Can Penn State start strong early on the road against Taulia Tagovailoa and the Terps' 37th-ranked offense? Or will Allar and the Nittany Lions continue to falter, allowing Maryland to compete as a double-digit home underdog? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his latest prediction and pick for Penn State vs. Maryland.
Penn State vs. Maryland Date, Time, And Where To Watch
- Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023
- Game Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Penn State vs. Maryland Odds
- Spread: Penn State -11.5 (-110), Maryland +11.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 50.5 (-110), Over 50.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Penn State (-465), Maryland (+350)
Penn State vs. Maryland Injury Report
Penn State
Questionable: DE Chop Robinson (Undisclosed), WR Harrison Wallace III (Undisclosed)
Out: N/A
Maryland
Questionable: N/A
Out: LB Neeo Avery (Undisclosed), OL DeAndre Duffus (Undisclosed)
Penn State vs. Maryland Prediction
Penn State's defense may be without edge rusher Chop Robinson, which has clearly impacted their performance since his injury against the Buckeyes. The Nittany Lions allowed Indiana to gain the lead twice in the first half at home in Week 9 before building a ten-point lead in the second half.
Maryland's defense has been largely ineffective, allowing four consecutive opponents to record at least 200 passing yards and two touchdowns. It's much better defending the run, allowing 3.1 YPC and five total rushing touchdowns this season. Penn State relies on its rushing attack to set up play action shots downfield for Allar. In obvious passing situations, Allar is not at his best, so Maryland's ability to contain Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen will be key to covering +11.5 ATS.
The Terps haven't lost at home by more than three points this season, whereas Penn State has won two of their three road games outright, with both victories covering the spread against Northwestern and Illinois. Ironically enough, Northwestern and Illinois are the two opponents Maryland has lost to outright since their undefeated season ended at Ohio State. Both teams have been on a downward trajectory since losing to the Buckeyes.
This week, oddsmakers have dropped Penn State from over a 30-point favorite to -11.5 ATS, but this still may be too much. Maryland can score, recording ten receiving touchdowns in three of its past four games, excluding their matchup against Ohio State. Penn State just allowed Indiana to score three receiving touchdowns last week, so expect Tagovailoa and the Terps' offense to have a good outing at home.
50.5 is the point total line, so it's between Maryland +11.5 ATS and over 50.5 total points. Both of Penn State's road wins resulted in at least 51 total points scored, while Maryland's home games have also eclipsed this total in every matchup since a 38-6 win over Towson in Week 1. Maryland's pass defense is a liability, so let's place a couple of units on over 50.5 total points to be scored in this Big Ten East matchup.
Penn State vs. Maryland Pick
- Over 50.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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