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Buffalo has regressed a bit this season and now they have to go on the road to face Toledo, who is probably the best team in the MAC this season. Can Buffalo put together a solid effort on the road tonight? Let's break it down.
ANALYSIS

Buffalo vs. Toledo Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds

Buffalo started off this season very poorly as they lost to Wisconsin by three touchdowns and then lost to FCS Fordham in a shootout. Their defense was exposed in a big way during the first month of the season as they allowed 38 to Wisconsin, 40 to Fordham, 55 to Liberty, and 45 to Louisiana.

Buffalo vs. Toledo Date, Time, and Where to Watch

  • Date: October 31, 2023
  • Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN2

Buffalo vs. Toledo Odds

  • Spread: Buffalo +15 (-108), Toledo -15 (-108)
  • Total Odds: O 49.5 (-110), U 49.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline Odds: Buffalo (+500), Toledo (-650)

Buffalo vs. Toledo Prediction

They started the year 0-4 straight up but have since righted the ship a bit as they are 3-1 over their last four games. Now those games have come against less than stellar competition as they played Kent State, Bowling Green, Akron, and Central Michigan but still, they have been playing better football as of late.

On the other side, Toledo are the betting favorites to win the MAC but they have had a weird season so far. They are 7-1 straight up and are actually on a seven-game winning streak after a narrow loss to Illinois in week 1, but they have not been winning with much margin. Toledo needed a second half comeback to beat San Jose State as 8.5-point favorites as they only won that game by four.

The Rockets also needed a second half comeback to beat Western Michigan at home as they were down at the half 24-14 as 21.5-point favorites before storming back in the second half to win. Against UMass and Ball State, where Toledo was 18.5 and 17.5-point favorites, they trailed UMass at the half 21-17 and were tied with Ball State 3-3 at the break.

For some reason Toledo has just not opened games with urgency this season as they are actually 0-4 ATS in the first half of games as a double-digit favorite. Part of their struggles as big favorites this season could be due to the fact that they are allowing their opponents to convert 38% of their third downs and sustain long drives against them.

Toledo is also averaging 1.6 turnovers per game on the year against very weak competition and they have been shooting themselves in the foot with penalties as they are ranked 121st in the nation in offensive penalties per game (7.6) and 119th in offensive penalty yardage per game (67).

On the other side, Buffalo went into Wisconsin in Week 1 and were actually very competitive in the first half of that game as they were only trailing the Badgers 14-10 at the break. Toledo also nearly blew the game against Miami OH in the second half as they were outscored 14-0 and think they may continue their sluggish trend into the first half of this matchup tonight. With that being said, I am rolling with Buffalo 1H +8.5 at -105 for 1.5U as one of my most confident college football plays of the day for tonight's action.

Buffalo vs. Toledo Pick

1.5u Buffalo 1H +8.5 -105 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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Article Author

NCAABNBAMLB

Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.

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