Wyoming vs. UNLV Prediction: Can the Rebels Rock Andrew Peasley, Cowboys?

Wyoming vs. UNLV Prediction: Can the Rebels Rock Andrew Peasley, Cowboys?

UNLV enters this mountain west matchup with a record of 7-2 but they have been even better against the spread this season as they are 8-1 ATS, and in the only game they did not cover, they still won the game straight up against Colorado State. The only two games UNLV has lost this season have come against Michigan in the Big House (8-0), and on the road to Fresno State (8-1) in a game where they outgained the Bulldogs 424 to 312 and covered the spread, but four turnovers likely cost them the win.

Wyoming vs. UNLV Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: November 10, 2023
• Game Time: 10:45 p.m. ET
• Where To Watch: FS1

Wyoming vs. UNLV Prediction

It seems as though the market has been very slow to catch up with how good this UNLV team really is as they are sitting at 7-2 and the combined record of the teams they have lost to (Michigan/Fresno State) is a whopping 17-1, so they have done a great job at showing up and performing well week in and week out.

On the season to this point, the UNLV offense is ranked 37th in yards per play (6.0), 14th in points per play (0.500), sixth in third down conversion rate (52%), and 26th in yards per passing attempt (8.4). They have also been very effective on the ground as they are averaging 4.5 yards per rush as a team (43rd nationally) and are averaging 191 rushing yards per game which is top 20 in the nation.

On the defensive side of the ball, UNLV has excelled in stopping the run and in forcing turnovers. UNLV is ranked 28th in yards allowed per carry (3.6), 38th in opponent third down conversion (35%), and second in the country in takeaways per game (2.3). UNLV is ranked fourth in the country in average turnover per margin per game this season as they are averaging a positive turnover differential of 1.3 per game.

Where UNLV has been deficient on defense is in their secondary as they are ranked 114th in yards allowed per passing attempt (8.3) and 121st in passing yards allowed per game (270). In my opinion, this is an excellent matchup for this UNLV defense because Wyoming has one of the worst passing offenses in the nation this season.

To this point, Wyoming is ranked 126th in yards per passing attempt (5.8), 119th in passes per game (25), 127th in passing yards per game (143), and 92nd in sack percentage. Wyoming's MO is establishing the run to set up the play action pass, but I am not sure they are going to have a lot of success on the ground against this stout UNLV front seven.

Wyoming is averaging 4.3 yards per carry (57th) and run the ball 57% of the time which is 27th in the nation so they are a very run heavy offense. Wyoming is just 2-14 on third downs of six or more yards in their last two games against Boise State and Colorado State. If Wyoming cannot establish the run to get to third and manageable, I do not think they are going to have a lot of success through the air on third and longs as their passing attack with Andrew Peasley is well below average.

Wyoming has been good as an underdog this season but much of that success has come at home as Laramie is a tough place to play. They beat Texas Tech and Fresno State as home dogs, but they are 0-3 straight up on the road this season with losses to Texas, Air Force, and Boise State.

Wyoming did cover two of those games as double digit dogs against Air Force and Texas but in their lone game as a 4/5 point underdog, they completely flopped against Boise State as they got blown out 32-7 and their only touchdown came on a short field after a muffed punt. Boise State is very comparable to UNLV in that they do a good job at stopping the run but struggle at defending the pass.

Boise State's weak secondary and terrible passing defense did not matter against Wyoming, and I also do not see UNLV's weak secondary playing a huge factor tonight, as the Wyoming down field passing attack is just not good enough to take advantage of it. With that being said, I am rolling with UNLV ML at -144 for 1.5U as my most confident college football play of the day for tonight's action as I think UNLV gets the job done at home tonight.

Wyoming vs. UNLV Pick

1.5U UNLV ML -144 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Win a $50 Gift Card on College Football Saturday

Think you know what's going to happen in various games on College Football Saturday this week? Answer the pick questions below for your chance to win a $50 Amazon gift card!

College Football Odds

• Click here for Wyoming vs. UNLV odds
• Looking for College Football Week 11 odds across the country? We got you covered
• Michael Penix Jr. is separating himself as the Heisman leader. Get the latest Heisman odds here