Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Prediction: Can Rashad Amos, RedHawks Outlast Buffalo in MAC Battle?
The Miami (OH) RedHawks host the Buffalo Bulls on Wednesday night, and will attempt to squeeze their opposition out with the rushing attack. Can Rashad Amos and the RedHawks control the pace of play in a low-scoring battle? Joey Ruiz breaks it down with his Miami vs. Buffalo pick.
Joey Ruiz - November 15, 2023, 5:34 PM EST
5 minBuffalo vs. Miami (OH) Prediction: Can Rashad Amos, RedHawks Outlast Buffalo in MAC Battle?
Miami OH has MAC title aspirations as they enter this game with a record of 8-2. Tonight, they take on the Buffalo Bulls who hare having a brutal season with a record of 3-7. Who has the edge tonight? Let's break it down.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: November 15, 2023
- Game Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN2
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Odds
- Spread: Buffalo +8.5 (-112), Miami (OH) -8.5 (+105)
- Total Odds: Over 38.5 (-110), U 38.5 (-108)
- Moneyline Odds: Buffalo (+235), Miami (OH) (-300)
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Prediction
Miami of Ohio lost their starting quarterback, Brett Gabbert, a few weeks ago to injury but have not missed a beat as they have won two games in a row and eight of their last nine. Without Brett Gabbert at quarterback, The RedHawks have had to take on a bit of a different offensive strategy, now that they are without a competent downfield passing attack.
Over their last two games with Smith at the helm, Miami of Ohio has only attempted 28 total passes for an average of 14 attempts per game. Against Akron, Smith was only able to complete 8 of 17 passes for 50 yards for an average of 2.9 yards per attempt... not very good or explosive.
While the Miami (OH) offense has been a bit anemic this season, their defense has risen to the challenge to help pick them up. This RedHawk defense shutout Akron in their last game, and only allowed a total of 212 yards while registering six sacks. They also showed out in their previous game against Ohio as they only allowed 16 points while also getting ample pressure on the QB to boot, as they totaled three sacks on the day.
They get a very favorable matchup tonight against a Buffalo squad who has been very turnover prone, but the thing is, Miami of Ohio does not force a ton of turnovers even though they are an above average group. The RedHawks forced two turnovers against Akron last week but prior to that game, they had not registered a game with multiple defensive turnovers forced since Week 3 against Cincinnati. Since that point, they have played seven games and gone 6-1 during that stretch against Delaware State, Kent State, Bowling Green, WMU, Toledo, Ohio, and Akron but only forced a total of four turnovers in those seven games.
Miami of Ohio also has a well above average rushing rate on offense, as they are running the ball on 58% of their plays, which ranks 20th in the country. That percentage goes up even more with Aveon Smith at QB, as they ran the ball on 69% of their offensive plays against Akron (38/55) and 78% of their offensive plays against Ohio (40/51). They are a run-first team now and they run often, and frankly it is a bit odd because they are not having a ton of success running the ball. They are averaging 3.6 yards per carry on the season (99th). Miami (OH) is also one of the slowest teams in the nation on offense, averaging 30.4 seconds per play on the season (131st out of 133 FBS Teams).
To me, this is all a recipe for an extremely low scoring game as Miami (OH) did shutout Akron, but they were only able to score 19 points against an Akron defense that is terrible. Buffalo has had their struggles this season, but they did just hold Ohio to 20 points, and are an above average team at stopping the run as they held the Bobcats to just 115 yards on the ground and 236 total yards.
With that being said, I am rolling with the full game under 39 at -112 odds for 1.5 units as one of my most confident college football plays of the day for tonight's action, as I do not think we see a ton of points in this one. Feels like a 20-10 or a 21-13 type game.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Pick
Pick: BUF/Miami Under 39 -112 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Win a $50 Gift Card on College Football Saturday
Think you know what's going to happen in various games on College Football Saturday this week? Answer the pick questions below for your chance to win a $50 Amazon gift card!
College Football Odds
