Illinois vs. Iowa Prediction: Can Deacon Hill, Hawkeyes Continue To Roll?
Illinois vs. Iowa Prediction: Can Deacon Hill, Hawkeyes Continue To Roll?
The Iowa Hawkeyes have all but locked up the Big Ten West, as they are 5-2 in conference play with 3-4 Nebraska behind them. Iowa has won two games in a row and now they are looking to lock up their shot against either Ohio State or Michigan in the Big Ten Championship. Even though Iowa is clearly the best team in the West, they are just three-point favorites against the Illinois Fighting Illini. Is it enough points?
Illinois vs. Iowa Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date:Â November 18, 2023
- Game Time:Â 3:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: FS1
Illinois vs. Iowa Prediction
John Paddock came in last week for Illinois and saved their season. The senior who transferred from Ball State threw for 507 yards and four touchdowns last week against Indiana, bringing Illinois to 5-5 on the season and likely saving their chance at a bowl game. The Illinois QB situation is a bit murky, because Luke Altmyer is listed as active this week and is "expected" to start, but realistically Paddock may be the better option. Either way, I don't expect either quarterback to do enough against one of the best defenses in the country.
Iowa heard the expression "defense wins championships" and took it a little too literally. Iowa has the largest gap in defense to offense in the country, as their offense is 132nd in the FBS with 4.2 yards per play, while their defense is first overall in the country with only 4.0 yards per play allowed.
Deacon Hill has come in for Cade McNamara and neither has impressed. For that reason, Iowa is a very run-heavy team. They rank 22nd with a 58% rush rate. Leshon Williams leads Iowa with 614 yards on the ground this season, averaging 5.0 yards per rush, and he is set up for a big game against an Illinois defense that ranks 71st with 154 rush yards allowed per game.
This is likely going to be another Iowa classic low-scoring, grind-it-out game. Iowa excels in these games, and it is their bread and butter. Plus, they are playing at home, where they have dominated on defense all season. Whether it's Altmyer or Paddock under center, I don't see Illinois moving the ball well in this game. Iowa is too good at the line of scrimmage and will shut down the Illinois rushing attack and pressure the QB often. Iowa are the Steelers of college football, and their defense has been winning them games all season. Iowa may only put up 20 points in this game, but I feel confident Illinois doesn't score more than 13-14. 20-13 final is my prediction.
Illinois vs. Iowa Pick
Pick: Iowa -3 -110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.