New Mexico State vs. Liberty Prediction: Can Liberty Stay Undefeated in Conference USA Championship?
These two teams met all the way back in Week 2 which ended up in a blowout 16 point win for Liberty. Can New Mexico State close the gap and make this a close game? Let's break it down.
Joey Ruiz - December 1, 2023, 1:08 PM EST
7 minNew Mexico State vs. Liberty Prediction: Can Liberty Stay Undefeated in Conference USA Championship?
New Mexico State has been one of the most profitable teams in the country to bet on this season. They enter this game with an overall record of 10-3 and an ATS record of 10-0 in their last ten games. New Mexico State has covered every single game on their schedule since their 16 point loss to Liberty in Week 3 when they were 9.5/10 point dogs.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Date, Start Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: December 1, 2023
- Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: CBSSN
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Prediction
This Aggies team has simply found a way to win and cover all season and much of their success has been due to the emergence of star quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia has been one of the best quarterbacks in Conference USA this season as he has the Aggies offense ranked 12th in the nation in overall yards per play (6.5), fourth in yards per carry (5.7), and 42nd in yards per passing attempt (7.9).
This New Mexico State offense has been humming for much of the season, but it does need to be stated that they have had one of the easiest schedules in the country this season. Their ten wins have come against Auburn, MTSU, SHSU, WIU, FIU, New Mexico, UTEP, Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky, and Jacksonville State. Of those ten teams, only two have winning records (JSU at 8-4 and WKU at 7-5) and only one other team is even at .500 (Auburn at 6-6). The other seven teams I just listed have a combined record of 17-54 (24%)... not very good competition.
Another thing that should be mentioned is that when New Mexico State played the better teams on their schedule (Liberty, Auburn, WKU, JSU) each of those games have been rather low scoring. The combined average score of those four games that New Mexico State was involved in was 48.75 with three of those games going under the total easily with an outlier of a 67-point game with Western Kentucky in which there were 22 total points in the fourth quarter. New Mexico State is one of the slower teams in the country this season as they are averaging 30.5 seconds per play which is ranked 129th out of 133 FBS teams.
Liberty is also a very slow team as they are averaging 28.5 seconds per play which is ranked 108th in the nation. Both teams also have well above average rushing rates, especially Liberty as they are actually averaging the most rushing yards in the country on a per game basis (295). Liberty runs the ball on 69.42% of their plays (fourth in the nation) and New Mexico State runs the ball on 56.02% of their overall plays (31st in the nation). Both teams run the ball A LOT, both teams are EXTREMELY SLOW, and both teams actually do a fairly good job at STOPPING THE RUN.
New Mexico State only allows 4.1 yards per rush and Liberty only allows 3.7 yards per rush. In my opinion, this is a great recipe for an under and a much lower scoring game than the market is expecting. With that being said, I am rolling with the Full Game Under 57.5 at -106 for 1.5U as one of my most confident College Football plays of the day as I think Liberty wins in a lower scoring contest. Feels like a 28-20 type game.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Pick
1.5U Full Game Under 57.5 -106 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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