Michigan vs Iowa Prediction: Can J.J. McCarthy, Wolverines Take Care of Business in Big Ten Championship?

Michigan vs Iowa Prediction: Can J.J. McCarthy, Wolverines Take Care of Business in Big Ten Championship?

Michigan took care of Ohio State in the Big House last week by a score of 30-24 as Rod Moore intercepted Kyle McCord's pass in the final seconds as Ohio State was attempting to mount a game winning drive. The Wolverines answered all of Ohio State's punches and kicker James Turner was probably the MVP of the game as he went three for three on field goals including a 50 yarder and a very important chip shot in the final minute to extend the lead from three to six.

MICHIGAN VS. IOWA DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

• Date: December 2, 2023
• Game Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• Where to Watch: FOX

MICHIGAN VS. IOWA PREDICTION

J.J. McCarthy and Michigan are now tasked with facing Iowa in the Big Ten Championship and Iowa will have their hands full. Iowa has been one of the worst teams in the nation this year when is comes to offensive efficiency. What Iowa does extremely well is play solid defense, specifically in coverage, and they also have one of the best special teams' units in the country.

Not too often do you see a punter as a team's MVP but Tory Taylor certainly deserves it as he has been one of the best punters in the nation this season and is a huge reason why they are 10-2 while averaging less than 250 yards per game.

On the season to this point, Iowa is averaging 247 yards per game (133rd dead last in FBS), 4.0 yards per play (132nd in FBS), and are only converting on 31% of their third downs (119th in FBS). Their quarterback play is really what has hindered them as they are only completing 49% of their passes (130th), averaging 5.1 yards per passing attempt (132nd), and 123 passing yards per game overall (130th). It is pretty insane that Iowa has won ten games with those offensive metrics, but their wins have come against Western Michigan, Utah State, Iowa State, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Rutgers, Northwestern, Illinois, and Nebraska.

Those teams have a combined record of 60-72 (45%) and not a single one of those teams has a record better than 7-5. A lot of those teams also have very below average offenses that Iowa was able to hang with simply because they got into defensive battles. Iowa only scored an average of 14 points in their last six games and only scored over 20 points in one of those games against Rutgers, and even that game was 6-0 entering the fourth quarter. The brand of football that Iowa plays simply will not work against this Michigan team who has a stout defense and one of the more efficient offenses in the nation.

The Michigan defense had somewhat of a down game by their standards against Ohio State, but I have to give the Buckeyes credit, they are a talented offensive group with NFL caliber players at the skill positions and the Wolverines were still able to force two turnovers that proved to be the difference in the game. I simply do not see how Iowa will move the ball consistently in this game against a Michigan defense that is well above average in all three levels.

The Iowa passing attack is already one of the worst in the country and I highly doubt they will be able to air it out and if they try, they are likely to turn the ball over or be sacked on nearly every drop back. While Michigan is very slow and methodical on offense, we saw what Penn State was able to do to this Iowa team in what should be a very similar and comparable matchup to the one we have today.

Penn State did not give up a single point and took control of that game in the second half and I think Michigan will do the exact same thing. with that being said, I am rolling with Michigan -21.5 at -105 for 1.5U as one of my most confident College Football plays of the day for Championship weekend as I think the Wolverines steam roll their way into the College Football Playoff. Feels like a 31-3 or 31-7 type game.

MICHIGAN VS. IOWA PICK

1.5U Michigan -21.5 -105 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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