Montana State vs. New Mexico Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Tommy Mellott, Cougars Display FCS Power Over Lobos?
FCS powerhouse and 4th-ranked team Montana State is set to take on the rebuilding New Mexico Lobos to help kick off Week 0 of the college football slate. Can Tommy Mellott and the Cougars pick up where they left off a year ago as a rare FCS favorite? NCAAF handicapper Peter Alexis is here to give his prediction and pick for this FCS vs. FBS matchup between Montana State and New Mexico.
Peter Alexis - August 19, 2024, 1:25 PM EDT
7 minMontana State vs. New Mexico Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Tommy Mellott, Cougars Display FCS Power Over Lobos?
Montana State will head on the road to take on the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday afternoon to help kick off the 2024 college football opening weekend in a potentially lobsided FCS vs. FBS meeting, but not the way you would expect.
The Cougars arrive to this one ranked 4th in the preseason FCS polls, a great sign of respect to their program and returning stars. New Mexico will be their only FBS opponent this year, and they will certainly look to flex their strength on national TV this weekend on a limited four-game opening slate. There have been plenty of instances of the FCS teams making a name for themselves in these early season meetings, but only four teams were able to pull off the win against the FBS host last year.
Montana State opened as a 4.5-point favorite in July, before continuing to steam all the way to the -9.5 number we see today. The moneyline odds have the Cougars up to -360, making the Lobos a +280 home dog against an FCS opponent. It is an extremely rare spot to see an FBS opponent as the heavy underdog against the FCS squad that is usually meant to be a tune-up game for most programs. Additionally, the point total has settled down at 53.5 after starting at 55.5 a month ago.
NCAAF handicapper Peter Alexis is here to provide his prediction and pick for this opening weekend matchup between FCS Montana State and the New Mexico Lobos.
Montana State vs. New Mexico Start Time, Where To Watch, Odds
- Date: Saturday, August 24, 2024
- Game Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FS1
Montana State vs. New Mexico Odds
- Spread: Montana State -9 (-110), New Mexico +9 (-110)
- Total Odds: O 53.5 (-110), U 53.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Montana State (-360), New Mexico (+280)
Montana State vs. New Mexico College Injury Report
Montana State
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
New Mexico
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
Montana State vs. New Mexico Prediction
This Week 0 matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions. The New Mexico Lobos are coming off a 4-8 season and have lost their entire offensive line, which can only get worse with lack of experience and depth. They have a new offensive coordinator from Syracuse, but they have a long way to go to find their groove with a young quarterback in Devon Dampier.
On the other side, Montana State brings back almost every piece of their exciting offense. Tommy Mellott returns at quarterback for his senior season with the Cougars, and will look to repeat many of his successes from a year ago. He accounted for 1700 total yards through the ground and air and stacked up 15 total touchdowns, despite splitting time with another QB. Surrounding him will be a full cast of stars, including all four running backs and his leading receiver, Ty McCullouch. McCullouch compiled nearly 500 yards as well as five touchdowns after transferring in from Colorado State, and will look to show out in his final collegiate season.
The Cougars had a strong 2023 campaign, arriving to the FCS playoffs as the sixth seed. They suffered a tragic defeat by one point in overtime at the hands of perennial powerhouse North Dakota State, and will look to bounce back this year.
Montana State is a run-first offense, racking up nearly double the yards on the ground than through the air in 2023. They amassed over 3,500 rush yards that helped them put up 40 points per game in the Big Sky. Many teams had no idea how to stop their multi-pronged attack, with several athletic RB's and a dual-threat quarterback at the helm.
That won't match up well for a New Mexico squad that is testing out a new defensive scheme that will likely lead to some early issues. They already allowed over 400 yards per game last year, with 180 of those coming through opponent's rushing attacks. Both of those were bottom-30 in the FBS rankings, and it will be tough to fix those issues against a potent and veteran-led running game that has been highly effective for Montana State.
To see an FCS team as a nearly double-digit road favorite against an FBS team is rather unprecedented. North Dakota State has found itself in that position a few times over the years, but it is an extremely rare situation in the sports betting world. Montana State has taken down FBS teams four total times before, but the vast majority of those came in the 1980s, and the last instance was in 2006 against Colorado. They are clearly primed to break the dry spell in this matchup with the lowly New Mexico Lobos.
It is further evidenced by New Mexico's shockingly low win total at just 2.5, which is heavily juiced to the under. Unless the Lobos can find some fresh offense early, they will struggle to win games in their conference, and they will certainly struggle to stop this poised and experienced Montana State rushing attack on the other side. With Tommy Mellott using his feet and his several star running backs heading downhill behind an experienced line, the Cougars will look to put up well over 200 yards of rushing against this weak defensive unit, and thus control the clock en route to a likely double-digit road win.
Montana State vs. New Mexico Pick
- Pick: Montana State -9 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds.
College Football Odds
