Texas vs. Ohio State Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Week 1 Showdown
The Texas Longhorns will take on the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday afternoon in the biggest Week 1 matchup in recent memory. Can Arch Manning and the Longhorns edge the Buckeyes in Columbus to open the season? Peter Alexis previews this Texas vs. Ohio State prediction and gives a best betting pick for Saturday, August 30th.
Peter Alexis - August 29, 2025, 10:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadTexas vs. Ohio State Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Week 1 Opener
Ohio State and Texas will square off in one of the most anticipated games of the 2025 college football season when the Longhorns travel to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes in Week 1. The game is set for Saturday, August 30, 2025, at Ohio Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 12 pm ET, starring on Big Noon Kickoff on FOX. It marks a rematch of last year’s thrilling College Football Playoff semifinal and opens the season with major playoff implications. Both teams enter the new year ranked in the top five and loaded with talent, though each has a new face at quarterback. Texas comes in as a small underdog on the road, but with the nation's No. 1 preseason ranking, this early matchup could be a defining moment in the playoff race.
Ohio State is coming off a championship season in 2024, finishing 14-1 and capturing the national title under Ryan Day. The Buckeyes leaned on the nation’s best defense, which allowed just 10.3 points per game, the fewest in the FBS. Their playoff run included a semifinal win over Texas before defeating Oregon for the national championship. While the Buckeyes lost veteran quarterback Kyle McCord and several key players on both sides of the ball, the roster remains stacked with NFL talent. Former five-star Julian Sayin has taken over at quarterback and inherits an elite supporting cast that includes returning wideouts Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, but losing Emeka Egbuka. On defense, Ohio State brings back stars like Caleb Downs, but loses JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer to the NFL. Regardless, with new additions they should again be one of the most dominant units in the country. However, new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia takes over this fall, and his scheme implementation will be tested immediately against a Texas offense that is expected to be explosive.
Texas had a breakthrough 2024 season under Steve Sarkisian, finishing 13-3, lost the SEC Championship to Georgia in overtime, but reached the College Football Playoff for the first time. Their semifinal loss to Ohio State was decided by two touchdowns in a low-scoring defensive battle. The Longhorns finished third in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 13.1 points per game, and had the country’s best red-zone defense. With Quinn Ewers off to the NFL, the reins of the offense have officially been handed to Arch Manning, who enters his first year as a starter with immense expectations. Manning will have a strong foundation to lean on, with both CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner returning in the backfield, and a deep, physical offensive line. Defensively, Texas retains elite players like Anthony Hill Jr., Ethan Burke, and Colin Simmons, giving the Longhorns one of the most complete front sevens in the country. With returning experience on both sides of the ball and continuity in coaching, Texas appears well-positioned to contend from the outset.
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Texas vs. Ohio State Odds
Texas vs. Ohio State Prediction
The matchup presents strength versus strength on both sides, particularly in the trenches. Ohio State’s defensive front is one of the most feared in college football, but Texas’s offensive line is one of the few groups with the size and experience to counter it. Expect Texas to run a balanced offense early, leaning on the run to take pressure off Arch Manning while setting up play-action opportunities against Ohio State’s aggressive secondary. The Buckeyes’ defense was excellent against the run last year, but they’ll be tested by a Texas ground game that averaged over 190 rushing yards per game during the final month of the 2024 season. Manning won’t be asked to do too much early, but he has the arm talent to take advantage of single coverage if Ohio State’s safeties creep into the box.
On the other side, Ohio State’s offense may take time to gel with Sayin under center. While he has elite receivers and plenty of arm talent, this will be his first career start against a top-tier defense. Texas’s pass rush and linebacker play will make it difficult for Ohio State to get comfortable, and the Longhorns' secondary, which allowed just 5.6 yards per pass attempt last season, is more than capable of limiting explosive plays. This game could mirror last year’s semifinal: physical, low-scoring, and determined by which team protects the football and executes better in key moments. Special teams could also be a difference-maker in what projects to be a tightly contested matchup.
The home-field advantage certainly favors Ohio State, but the talent gap between these teams is negligible. Texas has returning experience, a dominant defense, and perhaps more continuity in terms of scheme and system. Ohio State’s upside is sky-high with Sayin, but asking a freshman to lead a new-look offense against one of the country’s best defenses in Week 1 is a tall order. If Texas can avoid mistakes and sustain long drives behind its run game, they should be in position to win outright or keep the game within one possession.
Texas was sitting at +2.5 earlier this week, and this line has come down to +1.5, and even flipping to -1.5 for the Longhorns at some sportsbooks. It may switch back and forth during Saturday morning, but it's clear that Texas is getting some momentum on the odds shift.
With the Longhorns returning more starters and possessing one of the best defenses in the country, this is a strong spot for them to cover as road underdogs. The combination of a seasoned roster and a manageable spread makes this a high-value play, even against the reigning national champs. Expect a low-scoring slugfest where every possession matters—and in that setting, Texas’s experience and physicality give them a real edge.
Texas vs. Ohio State Pick
- Pick: Texas +1.5 (-115) Click here to get the best Texas odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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