James Madison vs. Texas State Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Tuesday, October 28th
The James Madison Dukes will look to stay hot on the road when they visit the Texas State Bobcats on Tuesday night. But they'll run into Brad Jackson and a Bobcats game reeling from three-straight close losses and due for positive regression. Let's take a look at this James Madison vs. Texas State prediction and best betting pick for Tuesday, October 28th in Sun Belt action.
OC Staff - October 28, 2025, 7:00 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadJames Madison vs. Texas State Prediction: Can Brad Jackson, Bobcats Snap Losing Streak Against Dominant Dukes?
James Madison will look to keep its strong season rolling when the 6-1 Dukes head south to face the 3-4 Texas State Bobcats in Sun Belt play. The Dukes are favored by a touchdown on the road, but this matchup could be far more competitive than the records suggest. James Madison has built its success on a dominant rushing attack led by running back Wayne Knight, while Texas State’s high-powered offense, led by quarterback Brad Jackson, makes this a potential upset spot in one of the nation’s most unpredictable conferences.
Texas State may sit below .500, but their record doesn’t tell the full story. The Bobcats have lost three straight games by a combined 11 points, including back-to-back overtime heartbreakers and a one-point defeat to Arkansas State in the final seconds. Despite the frustrating stretch, Brad Jackson has kept the Bobcats’ offense humming, throwing for more than 1,800 yards and nine touchdowns this season. The freshman signal-caller has shown poise and accuracy in tight moments, and if he can get the Bobcats over the hump, Texas State could easily flip its season narrative with a statement home win.
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James Madison vs. Texas State Odds
James Madison vs. Texas State Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, October 25, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN2
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James Madison vs. Texas State Prediction
James Madison has been among the most efficient rushing teams in college football, ranking eighth nationally with 236 yards per game on the ground. Wayne Knight has been the centerpiece of that success, racking up over 600 yards and five touchdowns already this season. The Dukes’ offensive line consistently opens lanes for him to exploit, and their physicality wears down opponents over four quarters. Against a Texas State defense ranked 96th in rushing yards allowed, that advantage could quickly show up on the stat sheet. If JMU can control the clock and keep Jackson on the sidelines, they’ll have a clear path to victory.
Texas State’s own rushing game deserves attention as well, ranking 10th nationally at 234 yards per game. The Bobcats can keep pace with any team offensively, but they’ll face a major challenge against a James Madison defense that ranks second in the country against the run, allowing only 76 yards per game. For the Bobcats to crack that unit, they’ll need to get creative with motion, misdirection, and screen passes to loosen up the front seven and give Jackson manageable third-down situations, where he excels with a top-25 passing offense in this balanced attack.
This matchup has all the makings of another tight, physical battle decided in the fourth quarter. James Madison’s superior defense and ground game may be enough to edge out the win, but Texas State’s offense is more than capable of keeping it close, especially at home in a midweek spot that can throw off visiting teams’ rhythm.
James Madison vs. Texas State Pick
- Pick: Texas State +7 (-110) Check out the best odds at Bet365 Sportsbook
Texas State’s knack for close finishes makes this spread too wide. The Bobcats have been competitive against every top opponent they’ve faced and are due for some positive breaks after three straight heartbreakers. According to the OddsChecker+ Positive EV tool, Texas State covering the +7 spread has a 57% AI probability, translating to a +7.95% expected value at -110 odds. With Brad Jackson keeping the offense steady and the home crowd behind them, the Bobcats are well-positioned to stay within a touchdown even if James Madison pulls out a narrow win.
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