Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Egg Bowl

Few games in college football bring the same volatility, emotion, and “throw the record out the window” energy as the Egg Bowl — and historically, that chaos has belonged to the underdog. This year, Mississippi State walks into this rivalry as an inflated home ‘dog catching a touchdown… and that’s exactly when you want to fire on the Bulldogs.

Ole Miss enters with playoff dreams on the line, but that comes with enormous pressure. Add in the cloud of Lane Kiffin rumors (which always seem to flare up this time of year), and there’s at least some probability that distractions seep into their preparation. We’ve seen this movie before: Kiffin teams have historically flopped as favorites, including last year when they lost twice as double-digit chalk, ultimately blowing their playoff chances.

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Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Friday, November 28, 2025
• Time: 12:00 PM ET
• How to Watch: ABC

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Odds

Click here for the latest Egg Bowl Odds

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Prediction

And even with the hype, Ole Miss hasn’t been sharp. They’ve survived five one-possession wins this season — and their SEC slate hasn’t exactly been a gauntlet. Close calls against Kentucky, LSU, Arkansas, Washington State, and even a shot of life from Florida show cracks this number simply doesn’t account for.

Meanwhile, this is the ideal buy-low spot on Mississippi State. Yes, they got hammered by Georgia and Missouri — but they desperately needed the bye week after one of the 10 toughest schedules in the nation. They now enter the Egg Bowl fresh, healthy, and with a bowl game on the line.

And don’t forget: this team has played far better football than their record suggests.

They’ve:

• Upset a fully healthy Arizona State
• Close games against Tennessee and Texas, and Florida

From a matchup standpoint, Mississippi State’s defense may not consistently shut down the Rebels — few teams can — but the Bulldogs will be able to run the ball. And that’s the key. Jeff Lebby’s offense peaks when the ground game is rolling, and Ole Miss ranks outside the top 100 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed. They get pushed around up front, and that is exactly where MSU’s offensive identity lives.

At home. Off a bye. Healthier than they’ve been in months. Against an Ole Miss team that’s known to choke and could be tight under playoff pressure… this is the exact profile you want backing a touchdown-plus underdog in a rivalry game.

And then there’s the trend you absolutely cannot ignore:

Since 2005, the underdog in the Egg Bowl is 14-5-1 ATS (74%), with Mississippi State going 9-2-1 ATS as the ‘dog — covering by more than a touchdown per game.

This matchup historically rewards the team taking the points. And this year’s setup is tailor-made for another Bulldog cover.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Pick

• 1.5 Unit Pick: Mississippi State +7.5 (-115) Check out these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Cowbells. Chaos. And a rivalry dog that’s covered 75% of the time for two decades. I’ll happily take the points at home.

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