Baylor vs. Auburn Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Saturday, September 5th
Baylor and Auburn meet in Atlanta for a rematch of last season’s opener, but both programs look dramatically different after major offseason changes. Auburn begins the Alex Golesh era with familiar quarterback Byrum Brown running his offense, while Baylor turns to Florida transfer DJ Lagway after a disappointing 5-7 campaign. Check out this Baylor vs. Auburn prediction and best bet for Saturday, September 5.
Peter Alexis - September 5, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadBaylor vs. Auburn Prediction: Will DJ Lagway Struggle in First Start with Baylor Against Alex Golesh, New Look Tigers?
Baylor opens its season against Auburn on Saturday afternoon in the Aflac Kickoff Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on ABC, with Auburn favored by 7.5 points in Golesh’s first game leading the Tigers.
Both rosters have undergone substantial change, but Auburn’s transition is unusual because so many of the most important new pieces already know each other. Golesh brought Brown and several other players from South Florida, giving the Tigers considerably more built-in familiarity than a typical first-year coaching staff.
Baylor vs. Auburn Recent Results
Baylor finished 5-7 overall and 3-6 in Big 12 play last season, losing its final three games after sitting 5-4 in early November. The Bears closed with a 31-24 loss to Houston and allowed 32.6 points per game across the season, one of the biggest reasons Dave Aranda hired Joe Klanderman as his new defensive coordinator.
Auburn also finished 5-7, including a 1-7 record in SEC play. The Tigers closed with a competitive 27-20 Iron Bowl loss to Alabama after routing Mercer 62-17 the previous week. Auburn’s 2025 season never developed into a consistent winner, but one of its better performances came in the opener when it went to Waco and beat Baylor 38-24.
Baylor vs. Auburn Head to Head
The all-time series is tied 2-2-1. Last year ended a nearly 50-year gap between meetings and gave Auburn its first win over Baylor since the 1954 Gator Bowl.
- August 29, 2025: Auburn 38, Baylor 24
- September 18, 1976: Baylor 15, Auburn 14
- September 20, 1975: Baylor 10, Auburn 10
- September 18, 1965: Baylor 14, Auburn 8
- December 31, 1954: Auburn 33, Baylor 13
The 2025 matchup is especially relevant because Auburn controlled the game offensively and won by two touchdowns in Waco. Baylor now faces the rematch without its leading rusher from the past two seasons, Bryson Washington, who transferred directly to Auburn.
Baylor vs. Auburn Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, September 5th, 2026
- Time: 3:30 PM ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
- How to Watch: ABC
Baylor vs. Auburn Odds
- Spread: Baylor +7.5 (-118), Auburn -7.5 (-102)
- Total Points: Over 59.5 (-110), Under 59.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Baylor (+240), Auburn (-285)
Click here for the latest Baylor vs. Auburn Odds
Baylor vs. Auburn Line Movement and Betting Splits
Auburn opened around -6.5 before moving through the touchdown to -7.5. The Tigers are receiving 53% of spread bets but 62% of the money, giving Auburn both the market movement and a modest larger-wager lean entering kickoff.
The total has also drawn significant Under support, with 65% of bets and 80% of the handle below 59.5. That makes sense considering how many new starters both teams are introducing, although Auburn’s unusual amount of system continuity makes the side more attractive than the total.
Baylor vs. Auburn Prediction
Auburn technically has one of the most rebuilt offenses in the SEC, but simply counting returning starters undersells the situation. Brown and Golesh are entering their fourth consecutive season together after three years at South Florida, and multiple USF players followed them into Auburn’s 39-player portal class. The terminology, tempo and quarterback-coach relationship are already established.
Brown gives Auburn an immediate difference-maker at the most important position. He produced more than 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards last season, creating the type of dual-threat stress that was difficult for Baylor to handle throughout 2025. Auburn can play quickly without asking its quarterback to learn the offense on the fly.
Washington adds another direct advantage. He led Baylor in rushing in each of the past two seasons before moving to Auburn, so he brings both proven production and intimate familiarity with the Bears’ personnel. Jeremiah Cobb is also back, giving Golesh multiple options in a backfield that should help Brown stay ahead of the chains.
Baylor has its own high-upside quarterback in Lagway. The former Florida starter has played in SEC environments and brings significantly more physical talent than a typical transfer, while Jake Spavital should be able to create explosive opportunities for him. Colorado transfer Dre’lon Miller also upgrades the receiving corps.
The concern is how quickly everything around Lagway comes together. Baylor is replacing substantial production on offense while simultaneously installing a new defensive structure under Klanderman. That defense allowed more than 32 points per game last season, and the first opponent under the new system is a tempo offense led by a quarterback who already knows exactly how Golesh wants to operate.
Auburn has plenty of new faces too, but its most important additions arrived as a package rather than as individual pieces being introduced to one another for the first time. In an opening-week matchup where continuity matters disproportionately, that gives the Tigers a meaningful edge.
Baylor vs. Auburn Best Bet
- Pick: Auburn -7.5 (-102) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
The hook above seven creates some risk, but Auburn is better positioned to start quickly than its massive roster turnover suggests. Golesh, Brown and a collection of former USF players already understand the system, while Washington gives the Tigers another proven weapon against his former team.
Baylor is simultaneously breaking in Lagway and a new defensive structure after allowing 32.6 points per game last season. Auburn already won this matchup by 14 points in Waco a year ago, and the move from -6.5 to -7.5 with 62% of the money backing the Tigers supports another strong opening performance.
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