Patriots vs. Bears Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Week 7 Odds for Thursday Night Football
The New England Patriots travel to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football in a matchup between two 4-2 teams looking to strengthen their playoff positioning. Can Drake Maye overcome New England's mounting injuries while Caleb Williams looks to build on his impressive return to Chicago's offense? Check out this Patriots vs. Bears prediction and best bet for Thursday, October 22.
Peter Alexis - October 22, 2026, 6:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadPatriots vs. Bears Prediction: Can Drake Maye, Patriots Overcome Offensive Line Injuries Against Chicago on TNF?
The New England Patriots (4-2) visit the Chicago Bears (4-2) on Thursday Night Football at Soldier Field, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 PM ET. Chicago enters as a 3-point home favorite, with the total set at 50.5 points. Both teams have won four of their first six games, setting up an important interconference matchup between two playoff contenders led by young quarterbacks.
New England has won three consecutive games behind an increasingly productive Drake Maye, including victories over Buffalo, Las Vegas and the New York Jets. Chicago responded to an ugly divisional loss against Green Bay with a 31-23 victory over Atlanta, welcoming Caleb Williams back from a hamstring injury. With both offenses capable of generating explosive plays, the quarterback matchup and Chicago's defensive pressure will play significant roles in determining Thursday's outcome.
Patriots vs. Bears Recent Results
New England Patriots (4-2)
The Patriots extended their winning streak to three games with a 26-19 victory over the New York Jets on Sunday. Maye completed 18 of 32 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, connecting with Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry for scores. New England also rushed for 148 yards, although two lost fumbles prevented the offense from building a more comfortable lead.
Maye has been outstanding during New England's winning streak, throwing 10 touchdowns against just one interception over his last three games. The Patriots defeated the Raiders 45-17 in Week 5 behind Maye's 374 passing yards and four touchdowns, following a 29-26 road victory over Buffalo in which he produced 269 passing yards and three scores. His improvement has been particularly important after New England opened the season with two losses in its first three games.
Mike Vrabel's team has developed into a legitimate AFC contender, combining improved quarterback play with a defense allowing just 18.8 points per game. New England has also shown the ability to compete in difficult road environments, highlighted by its victory over Buffalo. However, injuries along the offensive line and recurring ball-security problems remain concerns entering another road matchup on a short week.
Chicago Bears (4-2)
Chicago defeated the Atlanta Falcons 31-23 in Week 6, benefiting from the return of quarterback Caleb Williams after a three-game absence. Williams completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards and one touchdown without an interception, while D'Andre Swift contributed two rushing touchdowns. The Bears controlled most of the contest, building a 31-7 advantage before Atlanta scored 16 unanswered points late in the fourth quarter.
The Bears also received an exceptional performance from defensive back Kyler Gordon, who registered three sacks and forced two fumbles in his season debut. Luther Burden III led Chicago's receivers with eight catches for 95 yards, while rookie tight end Colston Loveland added six receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown. Chicago's defense and special teams helped create important scoring opportunities, overcoming a late Atlanta comeback attempt.
Before beating Atlanta, Chicago suffered a disappointing 31-7 defeat against Green Bay in Week 5, exposing vulnerabilities in its pass defense and overall offensive consistency. The Bears had previously defeated the Jets 23-12 and Eagles 27-7 while Williams was sidelined. Ben Johnson's team has shown considerable improvement, but Thursday presents another challenge against an opponent capable of matching Chicago's physicality and creating explosive plays.
Patriots vs. Bears Head to Head
- November 10, 2024: Patriots 19, Bears 3
- October 24, 2022: Bears 33, Patriots 14
- October 21, 2018: Patriots 38, Bears 31
- October 26, 2014: Patriots 51, Bears 23
- December 12, 2010: Patriots 36, Bears 7
New England has dominated the recent history of this matchup, winning four of the last five meetings and each of its last three visits to Chicago. The Patriots won the most recent contest 19-3 at Soldier Field in November 2024, holding Williams and the Bears offense without a touchdown. New England recorded nine sacks in that victory and limited Chicago to just 142 total yards.
The road team has won each of the last three meetings, although previous results carry limited predictive value given the roster and coaching changes. Both franchises now feature more developed versions of their young quarterbacks, with Maye operating under Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and Williams benefiting from Johnson's offensive system.
Patriots vs. Bears Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, October 22, 2026
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
- How to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
Patriots vs. Bears Odds
- Spread: Patriots +3 (-118), Bears -3 (-102)
- Total Points: Over 50.5 (-118), Under 50.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Patriots +130, Bears -155
Click here for the latest Patriots vs. Bears Odds
Patriots vs. Bears Line Movement and Betting Splits
Chicago opened as approximately a 1.5-point home favorite before the spread moved to Bears -3. That represents a significant adjustment toward the home team, particularly considering the importance of the field-goal number in NFL betting. The total has also climbed from an opening number around 48.5 to 50.5, reflecting increased expectations for offensive production.
Interestingly, New England has attracted considerable support in the spread market despite the movement toward Chicago. One tracked betting distribution from October 20 showed approximately 78% of spread tickets and 63% of the handle backing the Patriots, compared with 22% of tickets and 37% of the money on Chicago. The Bears therefore reached a full field-goal favorite despite most wagers and money favoring New England.
The difference between ticket volume and money distribution is important. Chicago attracted a substantially larger share of the handle relative to its ticket percentage, indicating a larger average wager on the Bears. Combined with the movement from -1.5 to -3, that creates a potentially sharp-leaning market signal favoring Chicago, although betting splits alone cannot establish the source or sophistication of the wagers.
The total has experienced notable movement as well, reaching 50.5 after trading as low as 47.5. One tracked distribution showed the Over attracting approximately 65% of tickets and 78% of the money at the current number, indicating stronger support from larger average wagers on the higher-scoring outcome. Both quarterbacks are capable of generating explosive plays, but the short week and New England's offensive-line injuries complicate expectations.
For the spread, the key distinction remains the value of receiving a full field goal. Chicago -1.5 was a materially different proposition from Chicago -3, while New England now receives protection against a three-point loss through a push. Although the Patriots are priced at -118, the additional half-point compared with +2.5 is meaningful in a matchup projected to be competitive.
New England Patriots Injury Report and Team News
- Alijah Vera-Tucker (G): Out, hamstring
- Ben Brown (OL): Out, knee
- Carlton Davis III (CB): Out, neck
- Channing Canada (CB): Out, hamstring
- Karon Prunty (CB): Out, hamstring
- Morgan Moses (OT): Questionable, foot
- Kevin Byard III (S): Questionable, chest
- Christian Elliss (LB): Questionable, chest
- Craig Woodson (S): Questionable, shoulder
- Drake Maye (QB): Right shoulder, full participation, no game designation
- A.J. Brown (WR): Ankle, full participation, no game designation
- TreVeyon Henderson (RB): Ankle, full participation, no game designation
- Will Campbell (OT): Knee, full participation, no game designation
- Marcus Bryant (OT): Ankle, full participation, no game designation
- Dre'Mont Jones (LB): Shoulder, full participation, no game designation
- Joshua Farmer (DT): Personal, full participation, no game designation
- Andy Borregales (K): Personal, full participation, no game designation
The Patriots enter Thursday with significant offensive-line injuries that could complicate their protection against Chicago's aggressive defensive front. Starting left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, while Ben Brown is also out with a knee injury. With Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten already on injured reserve, New England will start Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor at guard, creating considerable uncertainty in the interior.
Right tackle Morgan Moses is questionable with a foot injury after leaving Sunday's victory over the Jets. Rookie Caleb Lomu would be an option if Moses cannot play, potentially leaving New England with multiple inexperienced or replacement starters protecting Maye. The quarterback was listed earlier in the week with a right shoulder issue but has no game designation.
New England will also be without Romeo Doubs, who was placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, while Mack Hollins remains unavailable with a calf injury. A.J. Brown returned against the Jets after missing four games, but struggled with drops while catching just three of 10 targets for 27 yards. Brown has no injury designation for Thursday, making his performance particularly important as New England attempts to replace Doubs' production.
Defensively, starting cornerback Carlton Davis III has been ruled out with a neck injury, while reserve corners Karon Prunty and Channing Canada are also unavailable. Safety Kevin Byard III, safety Craig Woodson and linebacker Christian Elliss are questionable. The secondary injuries could create opportunities for Williams, particularly if New England struggles to contain Chicago's receivers in extended passing situations.
Chicago Bears Injury Report and Team News
- Kyle Monangai (RB): Out, thumb/toe
- Jack Sanborn (LB): Out, concussion
- T.J. Edwards (LB): Doubtful, hamstring
- Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (CB): Questionable, hip
- Jonah Jackson (G): Hip/quadriceps, full participation, no game designation
- Keyshaun Elliott (LB): Quadriceps, full participation, no game designation
The Bears received a significant boost with Caleb Williams returning from his hamstring injury against Atlanta. Williams showed little rust, throwing for 305 yards while completing more than 83% of his passes. His return restores the full passing dimension of Ben Johnson's offense, although his mobility and ability to extend plays remain worth monitoring on a short week.
Running back Kyle Monangai has been ruled out with thumb and toe injuries, leaving D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson to handle the backfield workload. Monangai had rushed for 324 yards and six touchdowns before his injury, so his absence removes an important physical rushing option. Swift remains dangerous, but Chicago loses some of the backfield versatility that contributed to its early-season offensive success.
Defensively, linebacker Jack Sanborn is out with a concussion, while T.J. Edwards is doubtful because of a hamstring injury. Their absences could weaken Chicago's second-level run defense and coverage against tight ends, creating opportunities for Hunter Henry and New England's running backs. Cornerback Tyrique Stevenson is questionable with a hip injury, although he was listed as a full participant in estimated practice activity.
Chicago will also be without defensive end Montez Sweat, who is serving the second game of a two-game suspension, while Dayo Odeyingbo remains on injured reserve. However, the Bears welcomed back Kyler Gordon last week, and his three-sack performance against Atlanta immediately strengthened their pressure packages. Right guard Jonah Jackson has no game designation after dealing with hip and quadriceps issues.
Patriots vs. Bears Prediction
The Patriots enter Thursday Night Football in excellent form, but their ability to compete with Chicago will depend on whether Maye can continue his recent efficiency behind a depleted offensive line. New England's quarterback has thrown 10 touchdowns over his last three games and has become substantially more effective at attacking defenses vertically. His improvement gives the Patriots a legitimate chance to win outright, even against a Chicago team that has performed well at home.
One of the most important matchups involves New England's passing attack against Chicago's vulnerable early-down defense. The Bears rank 29th in expected points added per play on first and second down, allowing opponents to generate explosive passing plays with considerable frequency. Chicago has also struggled against under-center play-action concepts, creating an opportunity for McDaniels to manufacture deeper throws without consistently exposing Maye to long-developing dropbacks.
Chicago's third-down defense presents a much more difficult challenge. The Bears are allowing opponents to convert only 25.8% of third-down opportunities, using aggressive blitz packages and disguised coverage to create pressure. Gordon's return gives defensive coordinator Dennis Allen another dangerous pressure option, particularly against a New England offensive line missing multiple starters. The Patriots must establish manageable down-and-distance situations to avoid exposing their interior protection.
However, Sweat's absence reduces Chicago's ability to generate consistent pressure with its traditional defensive front. The Bears have compensated by blitzing defensive backs and linebackers, but those adjustments can leave openings in coverage. Maye's mobility and ability to throw accurately outside the pocket should help New England counter pressure, while quick passes to Henry and Douglas can keep the offense moving without requiring lengthy protection.
Brown also presents a potential difference-maker after his disappointing performance against the Jets. Despite catching only three passes, he received 10 targets, demonstrating his importance to New England's offensive structure. With Doubs unavailable, Brown should remain central to the passing attack. Chicago's secondary has surrendered explosive completions throughout the season, and another high-volume opportunity could allow Brown to produce significantly more yardage.
On the other side, Chicago's offensive success has increasingly depended on controlling possession through its rushing attack and efficient short passing game. The Bears lead the league in rushing yards per game and have used multiple-tight-end formations to create favorable blocking matchups. Their offense dominated possession against Atlanta, holding the football for more than 40 minutes and limiting the Falcons to only 50 offensive plays.
New England must prevent Chicago from controlling the pace in similar fashion. The Patriots have enough talent along their defensive front, including Christian Barmore, Milton Williams and Dre'Mont Jones, to challenge the Bears' running game and create difficult third-down situations. Forcing Williams into longer passing situations would also reduce Chicago's ability to dictate the game through play-action and designed movement.
Williams remains dangerous because of his improved accuracy and ability to escape pressure, but New England's coverage schemes could limit his opportunities for explosive completions. The Patriots can employ split-safety looks to discourage deep throws while challenging Chicago to sustain lengthy drives. Davis' absence creates some vulnerability in the secondary, although Christian Gonzalez provides a strong option against Chicago's top receivers.
The betting number ultimately makes New England the more attractive side. Chicago has moved from a 1.5-point favorite to a full field goal despite receiving substantially fewer spread wagers. The additional points matter in a matchup between two 4-2 teams with capable quarterbacks and defenses that have demonstrated the ability to keep games competitive.
FairPlay AI also offers modest support for the Patriots at the current number. The model projects Chicago as only a 1.5-point favorite, compared with the sportsbook's Bears -3 spread, creating approximately 1.5 points of theoretical value on New England. Its 53% win probability for Chicago compared with 47% for New England reinforces the expectation of a competitive contest rather than a comfortable home victory. The projected total matches the market at 50.5, providing no separate model edge on the scoring environment.
The biggest concern for New England remains its offensive-line injuries against Chicago's aggressive pressure packages. Nevertheless, Maye's recent development, the Bears' defensive vulnerabilities on early downs and the absence of Sweat create legitimate paths for the Patriots to remain competitive. Chicago's home-field advantage and Williams' return make the Bears a deserving favorite, but laying a full field goal appears less attractive than taking the points with New England.
Patriots vs. Bears Best Bet
- Best Bet: Patriots +3 (-118) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
New England has won three consecutive games behind Maye's outstanding recent production, and its offense has enough explosive potential to challenge Chicago's defense. The Bears remain dangerous with Williams back under center, but their weaknesses on early downs and depleted defensive front provide opportunities for the Patriots to sustain drives and generate scoring chances.
The movement from Chicago -1.5 to -3 creates a more favorable entry point for New England, particularly given the importance of the field-goal number. FairPlay AI projects a narrower margin than the current market, while Maye's recent play suggests New England can remain competitive despite its offensive-line injuries.
A close game decided by a late possession is a realistic outcome, and the Patriots have the quarterback play and defensive personnel to challenge Chicago throughout Thursday night. New England +3 offers protection against a field-goal defeat through a push, making the Patriots the preferred side in this primetime matchup.
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