Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Saturday, September 5th
Oklahoma State begins the Eric Morris era in the Turnpike Classic against a Tulsa team that handed the Cowboys one of their most painful losses last season. Oklahoma State technically has one of the most rebuilt rosters in college football, but Morris brought the core of the nation’s No. 1 offense with him from North Texas, creating a rare opportunity for a massive transfer class to function immediately. Check out this Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa prediction and best bet for Saturday, September 5.
Peter Alexis - September 5, 2026, 2:15 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadOklahoma State vs. Tulsa Prediction: Can Drew Mestemaker, Cowboys Start Hot After Team Transfer from North Texas?
Oklahoma State travels 72 miles to Tulsa on Saturday afternoon for its season opener at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:45 PM ET on ESPNU, with the Cowboys favored by 13.5 points in Morris’ debut.
No major program has attempted a reset quite like Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have 91 newcomers, including 66 transfers, after going 1-11 last season. The difference is that 21 players have already played for Morris at North Texas, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins and receiver Wyatt Young.
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Recent Results
Oklahoma State finished 1-11 overall and 0-9 in Big 12 play last season, losing its final 11 games after beating UT Martin in the opener. The Cowboys finished with a 20-13 loss to Iowa State and scored 17 points or fewer in seven games, triggering the complete overhaul that brought Morris to Stillwater.
Tulsa went 4-8 overall and 1-7 in American play. The Golden Hurricane showed improvement late by beating Oregon State 31-14 and Army 26-25 before losing 31-24 to UAB in the finale. Tulsa’s signature win came much earlier, when it went into Stillwater and beat Oklahoma State 19-12.
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Head to Head
Oklahoma State leads the long-running series and has won 10 of the past 11 meetings despite Tulsa’s upset last season. The rivalry dates to 1914.
- September 19, 2025: Tulsa 19, Oklahoma State 12
- September 14, 2024: Oklahoma State 45, Tulsa 10
- September 11, 2021: Oklahoma State 28, Tulsa 23
- September 19, 2020: Oklahoma State 16, Tulsa 7
- September 14, 2019: Oklahoma State 40, Tulsa 21
Last year’s 19-12 result snapped Oklahoma State’s 10-game winning streak in the series. Morris also brings personal familiarity with Tulsa after going 2-0 against the Golden Hurricane while coaching North Texas.
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, September 5th, 2026
- Time: 3:45 PM ET
- Location: H.A. Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK
- How to Watch: ESPNU
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Odds
- Spread: Oklahoma State -13.5 (-110), Tulsa +13.5 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 59.5, Under 59.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma State (-549), Tulsa (+440)
Click here for the latest Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Odds
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Line Movement and Betting Splits
Oklahoma State opened around -11.5 to -12.5 before climbing to -13.5, with the market briefly touching -14.5 at some books. The Cowboys are attracting 71% of spread bets but only 57% of the money, so Tulsa is receiving the larger average wager despite Oklahoma State remaining the clear public favorite.
The line continuing to move toward Oklahoma State despite that discrepancy is notable. Rather than forcing a sharp-side label, the market appears to be pricing in the possibility that Morris’ offense transfers much more cleanly than the raw number of newcomers would normally suggest.
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Prediction
Ninety-one newcomers would usually be an enormous red flag in Week 1. Oklahoma State is different because so much of the offense did not merely transfer to Stillwater individually. Morris brought an established ecosystem with him.
Eighteen players on the roster were at North Texas last season, and 14 players on Oklahoma State’s opening depth chart played for the Mean Green in 2025. Mestemaker, Hawkins and Young were the quarterback, leading rusher and leading receiver for an offense that led the nation with 512.4 yards per game.
Mestemaker enters on a streak of 15 consecutive games with at least 200 passing yards and has thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight. Hawkins has scored multiple touchdowns in six of his last seven games. Those are not new playmakers learning how Morris wants the offense to function. They are established stars moving the same operation to a Power Four roster.
The surrounding talent has also improved. Oklahoma State’s 66 transfers formed a Top 10 portal class, with more than 45,000 combined Division I snaps joining the roster. The defense needs to prove it can make a similar leap, but simply reaching average competence would be a huge upgrade from last season.
Tulsa has some continuity under second-year coach Tre Lamb and returns Baylor Hayes at quarterback. The Golden Hurricane also showed tangible improvement late last season and already proved it can beat Oklahoma State. This is not an opponent that can simply be dismissed because the Cowboys changed coaches.
The difference is what Tulsa beat last year. That Oklahoma State team finished 1-11 and scored 12 points in the matchup. The 2026 Cowboys are almost a completely different organization wearing the same uniforms.
Morris has also already faced Lamb’s program twice as a head coach and won both meetings while at North Texas. With Mestemaker, Hawkins and Young following him to Stillwater, the learning curve that usually comes with a coaching change should be dramatically reduced.
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Best Bet
- Pick: Oklahoma State -13.5 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
The number has moved toward Oklahoma State, but there is still a major difference between evaluating this team as a 1-11 program and evaluating the roster Morris has assembled for 2026.
Oklahoma State imported the coach, quarterback, running back, top receiver and a large collection of supporting pieces from the nation’s most productive offense. That creates the potential for an unusually seamless Week 1 transition, and Tulsa now has to defend an attack that should look far more like 2025 North Texas than 2025 Oklahoma State.
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