Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Sunday, September 6th
Wisconsin and Notre Dame open their seasons under the lights at Lambeau Field in the latest Shamrock Series matchup. The Irish return proven quarterback CJ Carr but must replace an elite running back duo, while Wisconsin is rebuilding an offense that ranked near the bottom of the country despite adding one of the nation's most productive dual-threat transfer quarterbacks. Check out this Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame prediction and best bet for Sunday, September 6.
Peter Alexis - September 6, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadWisconsin vs. Notre Dame Prediction: Will Badgers Battle Back as Big Underdog at Lambeau Against Irish Tonight?
Wisconsin faces No. 4 Notre Dame on Sunday night at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on NBC and Peacock, with the Fighting Irish favored by 20.5 points and the total sitting at only 46.5.
Luke Fickell enters his fourth season at Wisconsin after another major roster overhaul, including 34 transfer additions and new starting quarterback Colton Joseph. Notre Dame brings much more stability at quarterback with Carr returning after starting all 12 games last season.
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Recent Results
Wisconsin finished 4-8 overall and 2-7 in Big Ten play last season. The Badgers upset No. 23 Washington 13-10 and No. 21 Illinois 27-10 during a late-season improvement, but they finished with a 17-7 loss at Minnesota and averaged only 12.8 points per game for the season.
Notre Dame went 10-2 and finished the regular season on a 10-game winning streak after losing its first two games. The Irish closed with a 49-20 victory at Stanford, with Carr throwing two touchdowns before the backups took over in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame did not play a postseason game and finished No. 10 in the AP Poll.
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Head to Head
Notre Dame leads the all-time series 9-6-2. The programs have not met since the Irish pulled away dramatically in the fourth quarter at Soldier Field five years ago.
- September 25, 2021: Notre Dame 41, Wisconsin 13
- September 26, 1964: Notre Dame 31, Wisconsin 7
- September 28, 1963: Wisconsin 14, Notre Dame 9
- October 13, 1962: Wisconsin 17, Notre Dame 8
- October 21, 1944: Notre Dame 28, Wisconsin 13
The 2021 meeting was tied 10-10 entering the fourth quarter before Notre Dame scored 31 points in the final period. Sunday shifts the series to Lambeau Field, where Wisconsin previously upset No. 5 LSU 16-14 in the 2016 season opener.
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 6th, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- How to Watch: NBC, Peacock
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Odds
- Spread: Wisconsin +20.5 (-110), Notre Dame -20.5 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 46.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Wisconsin (+980), Notre Dame (-1786)
Click here for the latest Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Odds
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Line Movement and Betting Splits
The spread has remained around Notre Dame -20.5, but the total has moved from an opener of 47.5 down to 46.5. That downward adjustment is more meaningful given the way the betting action is distributed.
The Over has 69% of total bets but only 52% of the handle, while the Under has just 31% of tickets and 48% of the money. The larger average wager is clearly on the Under, and the total moving down despite heavy Over ticket volume supports that position.
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Prediction
Wisconsin's 2025 offense was one of the least productive units in the Power Four. The Badgers averaged only 12.83 points and 253.1 yards per game, scored just nine passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns, and converted only 32.3% of their third downs. Only two of their 12 games finished Over the posted total.
Joseph is a massive talent upgrade at quarterback. He threw for 2,624 yards and 21 touchdowns at Old Dominion last season while rushing for 1,007 yards and 13 more scores, earning Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year honors. His mobility gives Wisconsin a dimension it badly lacked in 2025.
The challenge is immediately translating that production against Notre Dame while working with a heavily reconstructed roster. Wisconsin added 34 transfers, including new pieces at running back, receiver and along the offensive line. Joseph can improve the offense without turning it into a finished product in Game 1 against a national title contender.
Notre Dame's defense should make that transition difficult. Leonard Moore returns after finishing 2025 as one of the nation's highest-graded cornerbacks, and Marcus Freeman has consistently built the Irish around physical defense and limiting explosive plays. Wisconsin may have more big-play ability with Joseph, but sustaining touchdown drives is another question.
The Irish offense also has enough turnover to keep the total from becoming comfortable. Carr returns after throwing for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns, but Notre Dame lost both Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price to the first round of the NFL Draft. That duo combined for more than 2,000 rushing yards and 29 rushing touchdowns last season.
Aneyas Williams is an explosive replacement after averaging 9.3 yards per carry in limited work, but he had only 24 carries last season. Notre Dame can still control the game on the ground, but replacing two NFL first-round backs naturally creates some uncertainty in the first live game.
Wisconsin's defense also finished 2025 much better than its offense. The Badgers allowed 21.6 points per game despite repeatedly being placed under pressure by short offensive possessions, and linebackers Cooper Catalano and Mason Posa return after breakout freshman seasons. That group held Washington and Illinois to 10 points apiece during November.
Notre Dame can win this game comfortably without pushing it Over 46.5. Wisconsin's new quarterback makes the Badgers more dangerous, but expecting immediate efficiency against Notre Dame is aggressive, while the Irish have every reason to lean on their defense and rebuild the running-game hierarchy around Carr.
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Best Bet
- Pick: Under 46.5 Points (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Wisconsin averaged fewer than 13 points per game last season and now asks Joseph to immediately translate his Old Dominion production against a Notre Dame defense loaded with proven talent. The Badgers should improve offensively, but Week 1 against the Irish is a difficult place for that improvement to become a shootout.
Notre Dame also lost Love and Price from a backfield that accounted for more than 2,000 yards and 29 rushing touchdowns. With the total already falling from 47.5 to 46.5 while the Under attracts 48% of the money on only 31% of the tickets, the market and matchup both point toward a lower-scoring opener.
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