SMU vs. Florida State Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Monday, September 7th
No. 19 SMU opens its 2026 season under the Monday night lights against a Florida State team that already has one game of live action behind it. The Mustangs return star quarterback Kevin Jennings, but the Seminoles have the home-field advantage and an extra week to clean up mistakes from an uneven opener. Check out this SMU vs. Florida State prediction and best bet for Monday, September 7.
Peter Alexis - September 7, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadSMU vs. Florida State Prediction: Can Seminoles Upset Kevin Jennings, Mustangs in ACC Showdown on Monday Night?
SMU travels to Tallahassee on Monday night to face Florida State in the ACC opener for both programs at Doak Campbell Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on ESPN, with the Mustangs favored by a field goal in their first game of the 2026 season.
Florida State already has a full game behind it after beating New Mexico State 34-17 in Week 0. The performance was far from flawless, but the Seminoles now get more than a week to correct those issues while SMU has to open its season on the road in one of the louder environments in the ACC.
SMU vs. Florida State Recent Results
SMU is making its season debut after finishing 9-4 overall and 6-2 in ACC play last season. The Mustangs ended the year with a 24-19 victory over Arizona in the Holiday Bowl and averaged 32.2 points per game. Jennings was again the centerpiece, throwing for 3,641 yards with 26 touchdowns across 13 games.
Florida State enters 1-0 after beating New Mexico State 34-17 at home. Ashton Daniels completed 17 of 27 passes for 202 yards with one touchdown and one interception while also rushing for a score, and Ousmane Kromah produced 115 yards on only 14 carries. FSU generated 419 total yards and 217 on the ground, although the Seminoles looked considerably less dominant than expected as a massive favorite. Florida State went 5-7 overall and 2-6 in ACC play last season.
SMU vs. Florida State Head to Head
SMU leads the all-time series 1-0 after dominating the first meeting between the programs two years ago.
- September 28, 2024: SMU 42, Florida State 16
Jennings played a major role in that victory, completing 16 of 23 passes for 254 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. SMU accumulated 458 total yards compared with 285 for Florida State and turned three FSU interceptions into a comfortable second-half victory.
SMU vs. Florida State Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, September 7th, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Location: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
- How to Watch: ESPN
SMU vs. Florida State Odds
- Spread: SMU -3 (-110), Florida State +3 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 53.5 (-110), Under 53.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: SMU (-150), Florida State (+125)
Click here for the latest SMU vs. Florida State Odds
SMU vs. Florida State Line Movement and Betting Splits
SMU opened around -2.5 and has moved to -3, with the number even touching -3.5 at some books during the week. The market has therefore moved toward the Mustangs, but Florida State bettors can now grab a full field goal after the Seminoles opened closer to +2.5.
The public is hammering SMU, with the Mustangs attracting 76% of spread bets and 76% of the money. Florida State has only 24% of both categories, so there is no meaningful sharp-money discrepancy here. It is simply a heavily backed road favorite against a home underdog whose opener failed to impress.
The Over is another popular side with 78% of tickets and 64% of the handle at 53.5. The larger average wagers are slightly less enthusiastic about the Over than the overall bet count, but scoring remains the preferred public position.
SMU vs. Florida State Prediction
Florida State did not look like a finished product against New Mexico State, but playing that game is an advantage in itself. Daniels has already taken 27 live-game pass attempts in this offense, the offensive line has gone through a full four quarters together and the coaching staff now has actual film identifying what needs to be fixed before the ACC opener.
There were positives underneath the uneven performance. Florida State rushed for 217 yards, averaged more than five yards per carry and finished 6-for-6 in the red zone. Kromah's 115-yard performance gives the Seminoles a legitimate rushing threat, while Sam Singleton Jr. produced 164 all-purpose yards and scored twice. That ground game can help keep Jennings on the sideline and prevent SMU from dictating the pace.
SMU unquestionably owns the quarterback advantage. Jennings threw for 3,641 yards last season and already has experience carving up Florida State after throwing three touchdowns in the 2024 meeting. He is one of the most established quarterbacks in the country and gives the Mustangs a much higher offensive ceiling than New Mexico State had.
The situation around Jennings is less comfortable. This is SMU's first game of the season, the Mustangs are replacing several experienced contributors and their rebuilt defense will be tested immediately by an FSU offense that has already worked through some early mistakes. SMU will also be without two starting safeties, creating an opportunity for Daniels and Duce Robinson to attack a secondary operating without its normal personnel.
Florida State's defense has to be much cleaner than it was in Week 0. New Mexico State threw for 272 yards and created too many extended drives, which is dangerous against Jennings and Rhett Lashlee's tempo. Still, FSU held the Aggies to only 47 rushing yards, recorded three sacks and now has an extra week of film study specifically devoted to fixing its communication before facing SMU.
The environment shifts the pressure toward the favorite. Jennings is expected to win, SMU is ranked, three-quarters of the public is backing the Mustangs and they are opening the season under the lights in Tallahassee. Florida State has already dealt with a shaky stretch, found a way to win by 17 and now gets another home game with far less pressure attached to the result.
SMU may ultimately be the better team, but laying a full field goal on the road requires trusting the Mustangs to be sharp immediately. Florida State has the benefit of game reps, more than a week to make adjustments and enough rushing production to keep this matchup close deep into the fourth quarter.
SMU vs. Florida State Best Bet
- Pick: Florida State +3 (-110)Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
The public reaction to Florida State's uninspiring opener has helped create value on the home side. SMU has 76% of the bets and money, but the Mustangs still have to play their first game of the season in Tallahassee while Florida State has already put 60 minutes of mistakes and successful adjustments on film.
Jennings is the most dangerous player on the field, but all of the pressure falls on SMU to immediately justify its ranking and favorite status. Florida State's rushing game, home atmosphere and extra game of preparation give the Seminoles enough advantages to stay inside a field goal and put themselves in position to win outright.
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