Colorado State vs. Texas State Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Thursday, October 15th
The Colorado State Rams return from their bye for a Thursday night Pac-12 road matchup against the Texas State Bobcats in San Marcos. Can K'saan Farrar, Mel Brown and the Rams offense score enough to stay within two touchdowns against Brad Jackson and one of the most productive offenses in college football? Check out this Colorado State vs. Texas State prediction and best bet for Thursday, October 15.
Peter Alexis - October 15, 2026, 6:45 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadColorado State vs. Texas State Prediction: Can Rams Stay Close with Bobcats as Big Underdog on Thursday Night?
Colorado State visits UFCU Stadium for an 8:00 PM ET Pac-12 matchup on CBS Sports Network. Both teams enter 2-3 and 0-1 in conference play after spending last week on a bye.
Texas State is favored by 14.5 points with an enormous total of 70. The Bobcats possess one of the country's most productive offenses, but their defense has given opponents plenty of opportunities to answer, creating an appealing setup for a road underdog catching more than two touchdowns.
Colorado State vs. Texas State Recent Results
Colorado State Rams (2-3), (0-1 Pac-12)
Colorado State enters off a much-needed bye following a 56-26 loss to Oregon State. The Rams briefly tied that game 14-14 before the Beavers scored three touchdowns over the remainder of the second quarter and gradually turned it into a rout.
K'saan Farrar threw for 178 yards and added a rushing touchdown, while Durell Robinson produced 117 rushing yards. Colorado State still generated enough offense to reach 26 points despite spending much of the game chasing a large deficit.
The larger issue has been defense. CSU has allowed 41 points to BYU, 59 to UTSA and 56 to Oregon State during its three-game losing streak.
That profile is dangerous against Texas State, but it also helps explain why the spread is so large. The Rams do not need to fix every defensive problem Thursday. They need their offense to score enough to prevent Texas State from winning by 15 or more.
Texas State Bobcats (2-3), (0-1 Pac-12)
Texas State lost its conference opener 31-29 at San Diego State despite producing 565 total yards on a program-record 102 offensive plays. The Bobcats controlled possession for more than 40 minutes and still came away two points short.
Brad Jackson threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns while also leading the team with 80 rushing yards. His ability to create through both phases is the centerpiece of an offense averaging 531.6 total yards per game.
Texas State has now exceeded 500 yards in three consecutive games. The Bobcats are averaging 34.8 points, 263.6 rushing yards and 268 passing yards per contest.
The defense remains the reason opponents stay attached. Texas State is allowing 33.2 points and 423.2 yards per game, including more than 300 passing yards per contest.
Colorado State vs. Texas State Head to Head
Thursday will be the first football meeting between Colorado State and Texas State.
The programs are beginning their first season together in the rebuilt Pac-12, adding significance to a matchup where both are searching for their first conference victory.
Colorado State has already played in Texas once this season, losing 59-45 at UTSA. Texas State enters 2-1 at home, with victories over North Texas and Incarnate Word following an early loss to UTSA.
Colorado State vs. Texas State Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, October 15th, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Location: UFCU Stadium, San Marcos, Texas
- How to Watch: CBS Sports Network
Colorado State vs. Texas State Odds
- Spread: Colorado State +14.5, Texas State -14.5
- Total Points: Over 70 (-110), Under 70 (-110)
- Moneyline: Colorado State (+500), Texas State (-625)
Click here for the latest Colorado State vs. Texas State Odds
Colorado State vs. Texas State Line Movement and Betting Splits
Texas State has generally been favored between 14 and 14.5 points, leaving the market positioned just beyond the key two-touchdown threshold. That half-point is important for anyone backing Colorado State.
The betting splits are heavily tilted toward Texas State. The Bobcats have attracted roughly 70% of spread tickets and more than 80% of the handle at -14.5 in recent sportsbook data.
The moneyline is even more one-sided by ticket count, with more than 90% of wagers backing Texas State outright. Colorado State has received a larger share of the money than that ticket percentage suggests, but this remains one of Thursday's most publicly supported favorites.
Colorado State vs. Texas State Prediction
Texas State can score enough to make any underdog position uncomfortable. The Bobcats rank near the top nationally in total offense, rushing production and third-down efficiency, and Jackson gives them an unusually difficult quarterback to defend because of his rushing ability.
The reason to take Colorado State is the number. Texas State is being asked to win by more than two full touchdowns despite a defense allowing more than 33 points and 423 yards per game. That is a significant amount of separation for a team that has not consistently stopped opponents.
Colorado State has already shown it can score in a similar matchup. The Rams went to San Antonio and put up 45 points against UTSA. Even in the 30-point loss to Oregon State, CSU reached 26 and generated multiple productive rushing drives.
The bye should also help the Rams. Colorado State had nearly two weeks to process a three-game losing streak and prepare for Texas State's tempo, while defensive coordinator Kenny McClendon gets his first full game with additional preparation time.
Texas State's own San Diego State loss demonstrates the danger of laying this type of number. The Bobcats produced 565 yards, ran 102 plays and controlled possession for 40 minutes, yet still lost outright. Offensive domination has not automatically translated into scoreboard separation.
Farrar does not need to match Jackson statistically. Colorado State simply needs to sustain enough drives to force Texas State toward the 40s if it wants to cover. With Brown, Robinson and RJ Vick providing multiple ways to move the football, that is realistic against this defense.
The 70-point total reinforces the underdog argument. In a projected shootout, +14.5 gives Colorado State substantial backdoor equity even if Texas State leads comfortably for stretches. A 45-35, 42-31 or 48-35 type of result all stays inside the number.
Colorado State vs. Texas State Best Bet
- Best Bet: Colorado State +14.5 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Texas State is clearly the more explosive team, but the Bobcats' defensive profile makes laying more than two touchdowns difficult. They have allowed more than 30 points per game and just lost despite generating 565 yards of offense.
Colorado State is rested and has already demonstrated that its offense can produce points in a road shootout. With +14.5 sitting beyond two touchdowns and a total of 70 creating additional late-cover opportunities, the Rams have enough scoring potential to stay inside the number.
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