Texas vs. Missouri Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Saturday, November 7th

Texas vs. Missouri Prediction: Can Mizzou Pull Slight Upset Over Arch Manning, Longhorns in SEC Showdown?

No. 7 Texas (6-2, 3-2 SEC) visits No. 18 Missouri (6-2, 3-2 SEC) at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, November 7, with kickoff scheduled for 12 PM ET on ESPN. The Longhorns have won consecutive games, including a dominant 31-3 victory over Mississippi State, while the Tigers rebounded from their loss to Ole Miss with a convincing 34-10 victory at Arkansas.

Texas enters as a narrow road favorite behind one of the nation's strongest defenses, but Missouri possesses an excellent rushing attack and a quarterback who has consistently protected the football. Both programs remain in the SEC championship and playoff picture, setting up an important matchup between two ranked teams with identical records.

Texas vs. Missouri Recent Results

Texas Longhorns (6-2), (3-2 SEC)

Texas improved to 6-2 with a dominant 31-3 home victory over Mississippi State last Saturday. The Longhorns limited the Bulldogs to just 187 total yards and 12 first downs while generating seven sacks and repeatedly disrupting Mississippi State's passing attack.

Quarterback Arch Manning completed 17 of 21 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Cam Coleman, Raleek Brown and Emmett Mosley V each caught touchdown passes, while defensive standout Rasheem Biles recorded three sacks and two forced fumbles.

The Longhorns also generated a defensive touchdown when Maraad Watson returned a fumble 61 yards, helping build a substantial first-half advantage. However, Texas managed just 60 rushing yards, highlighting an offensive limitation that has persisted throughout the season.

Texas previously defeated No. 7 Ole Miss 34-27 on October 24, overcoming a second-half comeback after establishing a 24-3 halftime advantage. That victory snapped consecutive three-point defeats against Oklahoma and Florida, restoring some momentum to the Longhorns' postseason aspirations.

Texas enters Saturday averaging 30.8 points and 358.4 total yards per game. The defense allows just 17.1 points and 273.1 yards per contest, including only 102.4 rushing yards, establishing the Longhorns as one of the nation's most difficult teams to move the football against.

Missouri Tigers (6-2), (3-2 SEC)

Missouri returned to the win column with an impressive 34-10 road victory over Arkansas last Saturday. Running back Jamal Roberts rushed for 138 yards and accounted for two total touchdowns, surpassing 1,000 rushing yards for the season while helping the Tigers establish control throughout the contest.

Missouri's defense delivered one of its strongest performances, holding Arkansas to just 59 rushing yards on 36 attempts. Linebacker Nicholas Rodriguez recorded 11 tackles and forced a fumble, while the Tigers generated four takeaways against the Razorbacks.

The victory followed a disappointing 31-3 defeat against Ole Miss on October 17, when Missouri managed just 39 rushing yards despite Austin Simmons throwing for 339. The Tigers struggled to finish drives and failed to generate a touchdown against a physical Rebels defense.

Missouri previously defeated Texas A&M 27-6 and Florida 45-17, demonstrating its ability to produce convincing victories against quality SEC opponents. The Tigers have established a productive offense behind Simmons, Roberts and a receiving combination featuring Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode.

Roberts enters Saturday with 1,005 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 125.6 yards per game. Missouri also allows just 98.3 rushing yards per contest and has generated 23 sacks, providing a strong defensive foundation against Texas' inconsistent ground game.

Texas vs. Missouri Head to Head

Texas leads the all-time series 7-1, although the programs have not met since the 2017 Texas Bowl.

• December 27, 2017: Texas 33, Missouri 16
• November 12, 2011: Missouri 17, Texas 5
• October 24, 2009: Texas 41, Missouri 7
• October 18, 2008: Texas 56, Missouri 31

Texas defeated Missouri 33-16 in the most recent meeting, controlling the 2017 Texas Bowl behind a strong defensive performance. The Longhorns also dominated the programs' previous meetings during the late 2000s, winning by substantial margins in 2008 and 2009.

Missouri's only series victory came in 2011, when the Tigers defeated Texas 17-5 in Columbia. Saturday represents the programs' first meeting as SEC opponents, with the current personnel and conference implications creating a considerably different matchup than the historical results suggest.

Texas vs. Missouri Date, Time, Where to Watch

• Date: Saturday, November 7th, 2026
• Time: 12 PM ET
• Location: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri
• How to Watch: ESPN

Texas vs. Missouri Odds

• Spread: Texas -2.5 (-117), Missouri +2.5 (+101)
• Total Points: Over 42.5 (-102), Under 42.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Texas (-137), Missouri (+122)
• Selected Alternate Spread: Missouri +3 (-120)

Click here for the latest Texas vs. Missouri Odds

Texas vs. Missouri Line Movement and Betting Splits

Texas opened as approximately a 3.5-point favorite before the market moved toward Missouri. The spread has since settled around Texas -2.5, reflecting increased respect for the Tigers' rushing attack and potential concerns about the Longhorns' offensive personnel. The selected Missouri +3 provides additional protection against an exact field-goal defeat.

The total has experienced significant downward movement, with some opening numbers around 49.5 before falling to 42.5. Both teams possess excellent defenses, and Texas' recent inability to establish consistent rushing production has contributed to expectations for a physical, relatively low-scoring contest.

One tracked betting sample shows Texas attracting approximately 62% of spread tickets but only 36% of the handle. Missouri accounts for 38% of individual bets and 64% of the money, indicating larger average wagers on the home underdog. The movement toward Missouri despite more tickets on Texas is notable, although the distributions represent only the tracked market.

Texas Longhorns Injury Report and Team News

• Hollywood Smothers (RB): Out, Undisclosed
• Trevor Goosby (OL): Out, Knee
• Nick Townsend (TE): Out, Undisclosed
• Richard Wesley (EDGE): Out, Undisclosed
• Colin Simmons (EDGE): Questionable, Ankle
• Ryan Wingo (WR): Questionable, Undisclosed
• Cam Coleman (WR): Questionable, Shoulder
• Kade Phillips (DB): Questionable, Undisclosed
• Graceson Littleton (DB): Questionable, Undisclosed

Texas enters with significant offensive personnel concerns, particularly with Goosby and Smothers unavailable. Goosby's season-ending injury creates an important adjustment along the offensive line, while Smothers' absence reduces backfield depth for a rushing attack that managed only 60 yards against Mississippi State.

The Longhorns also face uncertainty involving Wingo and Coleman, their leading receiving threats. Wingo has recorded 36 receptions for 470 yards, while Coleman leads the team with seven receiving touchdowns. Their availability could substantially influence Manning's ability to generate explosive passing plays.

Defensively, Simmons' questionable designation remains important after the standout edge rusher accumulated 10.5 sacks earlier in the season. Texas also faces uncertainty involving Phillips and Littleton in the secondary, creating potential matchup opportunities for Missouri's productive receivers.

Missouri Tigers Injury Report and Team News

• Malae Fonoti (RB): Out, Knee
• Josh Atkins (OL): Out, Undisclosed
• Gavin Hoffman (TE): Out, Hamstring

Missouri enters with a relatively stable offensive lineup, with its listed absences involving players who have already missed substantial portions of the season. The Tigers continue relying on Roberts, Simmons and their productive receiving corps to generate offense, while the offensive line has been one of the SEC's strongest units in pass protection.

Roberts' availability is particularly important against Texas' physical defensive front. The Missouri running back has accumulated 1,005 rushing yards and leads the SEC in rushing production, while Lee and Olugbode have combined for 93 receptions, 1,340 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Defensively, Rodriguez leads the team with 10.75 tackles per game, while Daeden Hopkins has recorded seven sacks. Their ability to disrupt Manning and limit Texas' struggling rushing attack will be central to Missouri's chances of remaining competitive.

Texas vs. Missouri Prediction

Texas enters as the narrow favorite, but Missouri's offensive balance, defensive consistency and home-field advantage create several important reasons to back the Tigers with a full field goal.

The most significant consideration is Missouri's rushing attack. Roberts has accumulated 1,005 yards and nine touchdowns, ranking among the national leaders in rushing production. His physical running style and ability to generate yards after contact create a difficult challenge for a Texas defensive front that has otherwise been excellent throughout the season.

Texas allows just 102.4 rushing yards per game, making this one of Roberts' most difficult matchups. However, Missouri's offensive line has been outstanding in pass protection, allowing just eight sacks through eight games. That efficiency could help the Tigers maintain manageable situations even if their rushing production falls below its season average.

Simmons also provides an important advantage through his ball security. Missouri has thrown just two interceptions across 256 team passing attempts and enters with a plus-eight turnover margin. Protecting the football will be particularly important against a Texas defense capable of generating sacks and creating short fields.

The Tigers' receiving combination of Lee and Olugbode creates another important matchup consideration. Lee has accumulated 756 receiving yards, while Olugbode has added 584 yards and seven touchdowns. Texas has allowed only 170.8 passing yards per game, but uncertainty involving Phillips and Littleton could make maintaining that defensive standard more difficult.

Missouri's defense also possesses a favorable matchup against Texas' rushing attack. The Longhorns average just 134.6 rushing yards per game and managed only 60 against Mississippi State. With Smothers unavailable and Goosby sidelined, Texas could struggle to consistently generate rushing production against a Tigers defense allowing just 98.3 yards per contest.

That would place additional responsibility on Manning, who has thrown for 1,727 yards and 15 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Manning remains capable of generating explosive completions, but Missouri's defensive front has produced 23 sacks and consistently pressured opposing quarterbacks. Hopkins and Donta Simpson provide multiple ways to disrupt the pocket, potentially forcing Texas into difficult passing situations.

Another important factor is the difference in offensive health. Missouri has maintained continuity across most of its starting lineup, while Texas enters with uncertainty involving multiple receivers, defensive backs and Simmons. The Longhorns possess enough depth to remain competitive, but those potential limitations could become particularly important in a matchup decided by relatively small margins.

The projected scoring environment also supports the underdog. With the sportsbook total sitting at 42.5, the market anticipates a physical contest in which scoring possessions are limited. Missouri does not need to generate an explosive offensive performance to cover if its defense prevents Texas from establishing consistent production.

Home-field advantage provides another meaningful consideration. Missouri has already defeated Florida and Texas A&M in Columbia this season, demonstrating its ability to perform against high-level SEC opponents. The Tigers should benefit from playing at Faurot Field, particularly with Texas facing a difficult road matchup after consecutive home victories.

FairPlay AI projects Texas as a two-point favorite with a 56% win probability, compared with the selected Missouri +3. That represents approximately one point of projected spread value on the Tigers, while the model still narrowly favors Texas to win outright. FairPlay AI also projects 47 total points against the sportsbook number of 42.5, suggesting a slightly more productive offensive matchup than the market anticipates.

The biggest concern for Missouri is Texas' dominant defense, which could prevent Roberts from establishing consistent rushing production. However, the Tigers' outstanding ball security, offensive-line protection and defensive front provide a realistic path to keeping the contest within a field goal, with an outright home victory also within reach.

Texas vs. Missouri Best Bet

• Best Bet: Missouri +3 (-120) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Missouri enters with one of the SEC's most productive rushing attacks and an offensive line that has consistently protected Simmons. The Tigers have demonstrated their ability to defeat quality competition at home, while Texas' rushing limitations and injuries across several important offensive positions create opportunities for Missouri to control possession.

Texas possesses an outstanding defense and remains capable of securing a narrow victory behind Manning, but Missouri's defensive front and offensive balance make a comfortable road win difficult to project. Getting the full three points provides push protection against an exact field-goal defeat, making Missouri +3 an appealing selection in a closely matched SEC showdown.

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