These are this weekend’s best NFL picks, that’ve been extracted from our new Statschecker website. Each one has been presented to us through the “trending data” section from each game preview for this Sunday. After reading the information Statschecker offered, we then cross referenced it with more data, and these are our findings.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Statschecker’s Trending Data: “The Jets have a 12-9-0 (57.1%) O/U record in day matches at MetLife Stadium from 2016 onwards.”
The stats show that not only are the Jets going over at home, but upon further research, so are most games at MetLife. Right now the New Jersey based stadium is 78-67-1 to the over since 2010, with an average points total of 44.0. When examining the more recent history at MetLife, last year’s over was 10-6, with an even higher average points total of 44.7.
Looking at these two teams more specifically, they’ve now had 4 of their last 6 games against each other also go over the 41 point total set for this game. Given that this total sits three points short of last year’s average for MetLife, and both the Bills and Jets have a recent tendency to go over against each other, this looks to be a clear spot to take the over in this AFC East opener.
Pick: Over 41 @ -110
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Statschecker Trending Data: “The Vikings have a 23-11 (67.6%) ATS record as home favorites from 2013 onwards.”
When looking into the Vikings’ home cover trend, the 67.6% number listed above actually increases to 75% (11-5-0) when looking at the Vikings’ home cover-rate as either a fav or dog (over the past two seasons). The Falcons on the other hand, bring in the joint worst road cover record, which stands at a pitiful 25% (4-12-0) over the same period of time.
A -4 line always tends to look a little ‘trappy’, as it’s more than the field goal, but not anywhere near a touchdown. That being said however, it looks to be a trap for to encourage people to take the Falcons +4, who are often quite popular with the betting public. Not only does the -4 on the Vikings look like a good play, the numerous trends support them covering here.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -4 @-105