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Sunday's Week 3 NFL game features a matchup between the Miami Dolphins (2-0) and the Buffalo Bills (2-0) at 1 p.m. ET at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. JohnnyCovers is here with the best player props for this Week 3 AFC East showdown.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Player Prop Picks: Is Tua Tagovailoa In for a Rude Awakening?

Dolphins vs. Bills Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Sunday, September 25
  • Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • Where to Watch CBS

Click Here for Dolphins vs Bills Odds

In the first two weeks of the season, the Bills have had two big victories in primetime. In Week 2, Buffalo dominated the Tennessee Titans 41-7 on Monday Night Football after thrashing the defending Super Bowl champion Rams 31-10 in Week 1 in Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football.

In the opening weekend of action, the Dolphins defeated the New England Patriots 20-7. In Week 2, Miami was trailing the Baltimore Ravens 35-14 in the fourth quarter. That was before  Tua Tagovailoa led a miraculous comeback for a 42-38 victory by tossing 4 of his 6 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter.

Let’s dive into this matchup between AFC East foes, and see where the value is in the player prop market this week.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Best Player Prop Picks

Tua Tagovailoa - Passing Yards Under 265.5 (-115) (Bet $115 to Win $100)

With 703 yards through the air through two games, I think we are seeing this number inflated and there is value on the under. Getting an old and overrated secondary last weekend in Baltimore, Tua will now face a secondary in Buffalo that is amongst the best in the NFL this season yet again.

Coming into this game, the Bills rank #2 in the league in allowing just 149 yards through the air per game, in addition to ranking #2 in the league allowing just 215 total yards. While the Dolphins will get the benefit of playing this one at home, I think they’re in for a rude awakening as Tua gets brought back down to reality following a wild game last weekend in Baltimore. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer - Tyreek Hill (+105) (Bet $100 to Win $105)

While I do expect Tua to struggle, that doesn’t mean his safety net in Hill won’t find pay dirt. Hill has already shown this season why the Dolphins were willing to break the bank, as he comes into this game with 284 yards and two touchdowns on the season. 

His 14.9 yards per catch are amongst the best in the NFL once again, and when he’s on the field, any catch has the chance of turning into a touchdown. While I think the Bills put plenty of pressure on Tua, expect Hill to get loose at some point and find the endzone once again. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer - Josh Allen (+110) (Bet $100 to Win $110)

With eight total touchdowns accounted for through two games, Allen is the frontrunner for NFL MVP already this season for good reason. He also has one of those on the ground, an aspect of his game teams continually can’t account for. 

Averaging 6 yards per carry this season 11 attempts, look for Allen to sneak one in yet again.

Dolphins vs. Bills Player Prop Picks

  • Tua Tagovailoa - Passing Yards Under 265.5 (-115)
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer - Tyreek Hill (+105)
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer - Josh Allen (+110)

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Article Author


Johnny has been covering the sports betting markets and handicapping games for the better part of the past decade. Along the way, he has written for publications such as All-In Magazine, Blitz Predict, FantasyPros, Betting Pros, Sportsbook Review, and most recently, OddsChecker. In addition to giving out picks on Twitter, Johnny is the host of the podcast The Daily Sports Bet -- a 10 minute or less listen with actionable insights and no fluff or BS. Starting the podcast in June, he closed out 2021 up 26 units with a winning percentage of 55%.


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