Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Game Pick: MNF Prediction and Odds
The Buffalo Bills travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals for an AFC showdown. With playoff seeding on the line, will Josh Allen get it done for the Bills? Let's get into it.
Ben Rajavuori - January 2, 2023, 4:37 PM EST
5 minCincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Game Pick: MNF Prediction and Odds
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Bengals vs. Bills Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: January 2, 2023
- Game Time: 8:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN, ABC
Bengals vs. Bills Odds
- Spread: Bills -1.5 (-108), Bengals +1.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 49.5 (-110), Under 49.5 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: Bills (-115), Bengals (+105)
Click here for Bengals vs Bills odds
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction
The Bengals play the Bills with playoff seeding on the line in Cincinnati, Ohio tonight. This is the first time we get to see Josh Allen and Joe Burrow square off, and it's going to be a fun one in Paycor Stadium on Monday Night Football. The question is, with these two quarterbacks matching up, what is the best prop pick for the guys under center? I have narrowed it down to my favorite prop pick on the board tonight.
I expect Josh Allen's rushing yards to be one of the most bet props on the board tonight. His rushing yard prop is always a popular one, but in a big game against the Bengals, it seems people are backing Allen to get more done on the ground than through the air. I'm fading the popular bet and backing the under.
While the Bengal's run defense has looked average, they have been much better since the return of injured nose tackle D.J. Reader. Reader is a fundamental piece of the defense, and since Reader has returned, the Bengals have ranked 12th in rushing defense. They are also excellent at defending quarterback runs. How good? Well, quarterbacks are 1-14 to the over on their rushing line against the Bengals, with the lone over being Deshaun Watson hitting 33 yards with a line of 28.5. Yes, 1-14. This includes games against Marcus Mariota (31 rushing yards), Patrick Mahomes (9 rushing yards), and Lamar Jackson (58 rushing yards).
While Josh Allen's legs have been helpful, he hasn't used them as much in recent weeks. He has hit 48 or more yards in two of his last six games, and he has hit 48 or more yards in seven of his 15 games this season, hitting less than 50% on this number. Of course, in two of those games, he landed right on 47, but that is the importance of the number, and I would not be this lower than the current line of 48.5 on Bovada for +110 on the under.
James Cook has emerged as a real threat on the offense, getting 11 carries for 99 yards last week in the win over the Bears. Cook and Singletary have been becoming a bigger part of the Bills' offense as they start to rely on the run game a bit more, and the more carries the back get, the less designed runs for Josh Allen. The last two times Allen had big games on the ground were against Miami and Detroit, who are number one and two in allowing the most rushing yards to quarterbacks. The Bengals, conversely, have been limiting quarterback rushing yards all season. I'm fading the public and backing the under on Allen's rushing prop tonight.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Pick
- Josh Allen Under 48.5 Rushing Yards @ (+110) Bet $100 to collect $210. FanDuel has the best odds, click here
