WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Pick
The Bengals and Bills meet for Monday Night Football, which is an equally important matchup for both. WeBeatTheSpread is here with his best premium player-prop pick, and it's one you don't want to miss.
Ben Rajavuori - January 2, 2023, 5:24 PM EST
3 minWeBeatTheSpread's Premium Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Pick
Ja'Marr Chase Over 6.5 Receptions @ (-120) Bet $100 to collect $183. FanDuel has the best odds, click here
The Bengals and Bills meet in one of the most important games of the season for both teams. Both the Bills and Bengals have a chance at the one-seed in the AFC, which means this game has immense implications for both sides. For the Bills, the path is easier, as if they win both of their remaining games, they will clinch the top seed. They will also win with a win tonight and a Chiefs' loss next week. For the Bengals, they have to win their two remaining games, and the Chiefs would also have to lose next week against the Raiders, which is not highly likely. With such a big game ahead of these two teams tonight, the biggest stars will have to step up, including receiver Ja'Marr Chase. While I faded one of the best players on the field in my other article prop pick, I'm backing one in Ja'Marr Chase, specifically his receptions.
Ja'Marr Chase missed some time this season due to injury, but since his return in week 13, he has remained a pivotal piece of the Bengal's offense. Chase has hit seven-plus receptions in seven-straight games, and his line tonight is 6.5 receptions. Of course, I have to take his over in one of the biggest games of the year for the Bengals. In the other biggest game of the season against the Chiefs, Chase had seven catches for 97 yards. I'm not sure if he will pass his yards line tonight, but I am confident he will haul in at least seven catches.
Ja'Marr Chase has hit seven receptions in eight of his eleven games this season, including the seven-straight I mentioned earlier. Chase has stepped up when his team has needed it most, even if he doesn't get big plays like we are used to seeing from him. What do I mean by this? Well, While Chase has seven-plus receptions in eight of his eleven games, he has only passed 82.5 receiving yards in five of those. He has had three games where he had seven or more receptions but did not surpass 82.5 yards, including his last two games. Last week, he had eight catches against the Patriots with 79 yards. The game prior, he had seven catches for 60 yards against the Bucs. Even when Chase isn't passing 80 yards, he is still hauling in at least seven catches.
Of course, the worry with Chase tonight is that he is facing a tough Bills defense that ranks fourth overall, but how good are the corners, really? Tre'Davious White is back in the secondary for Buffalo, but he has not looked the same since returning from injury. In fact, both White and Dan Jackson are rated under 60 in their PFF defensive grade. Also, Chase is projected to have more snaps against Jackson, as White will match up with Tee Higgins as well, who leads the Bengals in receiving yards with 1,022. Buffalo is ranked 25th in DVOA against opposing #1 receivers, and although Higgins has more receiving yards, Chase has played four fewer games and has more yards per game averaged.
Chase is averaging 87 yards per game, which is pretty close to his line tonight. He has had multiple games this season where he has gone under 82.5 but hit seven receptions. Therefore, I am backing Ja'Marr Chase on his receptions line tonight, and I think he steps up for the Bengals in their biggest game of the season. With White looking not 100% since returning, there should be multiple chances for Higgins and Chase down the field tonight.
