WeBeatTheSpread's Premium 49ers vs. Seahawks Pick for the Wild Card Round

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium 49ers vs. Seahawks Pick for the Wild Card Round

The first game of the 2023 NFL playoffs kicks off in San Francisco, with the 49ers playing host to the Seattle Seahawks. You have to hand it to Pete Carroll and Geno Smith. They heard the noise of everyone saying they would be at the bottom of the NFC West, and they went out and got it done, ending 9-8 and earning a spot in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they have to play the most well-balanced team in the NFC and even the NFL. Not many people have the Seahawks advancing in this game, and the books have the line at -9.5 for the Niners. In a game that the Niners are expected to dominate, who can we bet on in the offense?

There's not a whole lot you can say bad about this 49ers team, except maybe they would prefer a more experienced quarterback. Nonetheless, Brock Purdy has looked excellent, and he has been the game manager the Niners needed, as Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle can get it done once they get the ball. Let's focus on the latter of the players on that list, George Kittle.

George Kittle is ranked as the second-best tight end in the league, per PFF, and his 84 receiving grade is higher than most wide receivers in the league. Kittle also has an excellent matchup in the first round against the Seahawks. The Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the league defending against tight ends. They rank 27th in DVOA against tight ends, and they allow 71 receiving yards per game to tight ends, which is the most in the league.

George Kittle missed the first meeting against the Seahawks this season, but in the second meeting, Kittle had four receptions for 93 yards. In his game before that against the Seahawks, Kittle went off for nine receptions and 181 yards. In his eight games against the Seahawks since his rookie season, Kittle has passed 43.5 yards in six of them, and in the two he missed this line, he had 39 and 40 yards. Even with his slow rookie season accounted for, Kittle has averaged 65.5 receiving yards per game against the Seahawks.

Another reason he should do well in this matchup is because he thrives against zone coverage. He has 1.83 yards per route against zone and 1.24 against man coverage. The Seahawks play a lot of zone, and Kittle also does well after the catch, which can be challenging to account for in zone. He also has good chemistry with Brock Purdy. In Purdy's last five starts, Kittle has seen a target on more than 20% of his routes, and he is the only Niner who has seen an increase in this metric since Purdy has taken over. Considering Kittle has been flying above this number against the Seahawks, I like him to do so again tomorrow. This is an excellent matchup for him against a team that has been allowing the most yards to tight ends all season.

49ers vs. Seahawks Pick

• Pick: George Kittle over 43.5 Receiving Yards @ -110 (Bet $100 to collect $190) You can get the best odds for this one right now at DraftKings

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