WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Prop Pick
For the first time ever, we have an NFL Playoff game on Monday Night Football. That means we also have NFL player prop picks on a Monday in the postseason. Ben Rajavuori gives us his favorite player prop for tonight.
Ben Rajavuori
| 3 min
WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Prop Pick
The Buccaneers have miraculously found themselves hosting a playoff game with an 8-9 record, and they now face the Cowboys in the wild-card round. With the season on the line, who can the Bucs rely on?
I expect his to be a high-scoring game. Tom Brady should have much more time in the pocket with a healthy offensive line built off Ryan Jensen, Tristan Wirfs, and Donavan Smith. With time in the pocket, Brady has a passer rating over 100, which is much higher than his 44 passer rating under pressure. On the Cowboy's side, they have a balanced attack that should do their fair share of scoring, despite a 3-point offensive effort in week one against the Bucs. With a high-scoring game and time in the pocket for Brady, I'm targeting a receiving over, specifically on Chris Godwin.
Chris Godwin has quickly become one of Brady's favorite targets, and he has double-digit targets in eight of his 15 games this season. While I expect Mike Evans to be a popular pick in the props tonight as well, I'm favoring Godwin due to play style. The Cowboys are more vulnerable against the short pass than the deep pass, which favors Godwin. Mike Evans the deep threat, as he has a 14.6 average per reception on the season, while Godwin has averaged 9.8. However, Godwin has 531 yards after the catch this season, while Evans only has 216. Evans also has double the big plays (plays over 20 yards). Godwin has an average depth of target of six yards and is an expert in the short passing game. Evans has 101 more yards on the season and averages 75 yards per game to Godwin's 68.2, yet it is Godwin who has a slightly higher receiving prop line at 65.5 yards to Evans' 64.5. It's not a big difference, but it shows that Godwin is expected to do slightly better in this game due to being the bigger threat in the short game and after the catch.
Godwin only had 35 yards in the first meeting against the Cowboys this season, but he played limited snaps because he was coming off an injury. Even with limited snaps, he hit 3 receptions for 35 yards. Now, he is fully healthy, as is the Bucs' offensive line. In the meeting before this year's against the Cowboys, Godwin had nine receptions for 105 yards. In his two healthy playoff games in the 2020 Super Bowl run, Godwin hit over 65 yards in two of them. I am high on Godwin to pass this line tonight, as DaRon Bland, the highest-rated cornerback for the Cowboys, will be covering Evans on most snaps tonight. Godwin will line up in the slot, which is where the Cowboys have had the most trouble defending this season. Godwin may hit 100+ receiving yards tonight.
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Premium Pick
- Pick: Godwin O65.5 Receiving Yards @ -110 (Bet $100 to collect $190) The best odds for this one are at DraftKings right now
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