WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Picks for Eagles vs 49ers

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Picks for Eagles vs 49ers

The second after the 49ers beat the Cowboys, I knew exactly what my first play for the NFC Championship would be. Brock Purdy and the 49ers have been on an incredible run, winning 12 straight games and taking down the Seahawks and Cowboys in the playoffs, but I think this is the game the wheels fall off. Instead of taking any Purdy unders on yards or completions, I'm taking an over instead.

While the 49ers' offense has been one of the heaviest run offenses in the league, that may have to change in this game. The 49ers have run the ball 54.2% of the time over the last three weeks, which ranks top five in the league. Of course, it's easy to run it all the time when you have Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. However, the Eagles have a heavily improved rushing defense that will give the 49ers fits.

The Eagles started the season with average run defense, but midseason additions of Jordan Davis, Ndamukong Suh, and Linval Joseph have upgraded the rushing defense to the next level. On top of that, the Eagles have Pro Bowl linebacker, Haason Reddick. The Eagles rushing defense is no joke, and they pressure the quarterback at one of the highest rates in the league. Because of this, I think Purdy will have to resort to the pass more in this game.

Along with an elite defensive line, the Eagles have Pro Bowl CB Darius Slay and James Bradberry, who ranks 16th of 118 cornerbacks on PFF. Also helping the Eagle's secondary is the return of cornerback Avonte Maddox, who has missed the last three games. This secondary is ranked first overall in the league for a reason. They have elite cornerbacks and safeties with no real weak spot, and they are also healthy, which is most important.

I'm not taking anything from what Purdy has done as a rookie. He is in a spot only four other men have ever been in NFL history. Only four other rookies have made it to the conference championship, and Purdy is the fifth. I just think this is a horrible matchup for him against the best defensive line in the league and the top secondary. Last week, I counted several passes that Purdy forced that could have been picked off, but he got away with. The Eagle's secondary will not allow even one of those mistakes, and I expect the return of Maddoxto really be the cherry on top.

Purdy is facing his biggest test of the season on the biggest stage against the best secondary he has faced. Last week, he was playing at home and benefited from a horrible performance from Dak Prescott and his two picks. Now, he is playing on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the nation. This week, I think it is Purdy who throws the pick. Specifically, I think it will be Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who leads the Eagles with six interceptions and is excellent at predicting placement, that will get the interception.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Pick

• Pick: Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Interceptions @ (-148) Bet $100 to collect $167 FanDuel has the best odds
• Pick: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson interception @ (+600) Bet $100 to collect $700 DraftKings has the best odds

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