Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Pick: Will the Defenses Out Shine the Offenses?
In tonight's NFL opening game, will the defenses out shine the offenses? Handicapper Krabs breaks down the highly anticipated game between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. Don't miss out on this NFL Week 1 pick.
Krabs - September 7, 2023, 4:49 PM EDT
5 minDetroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Pick: Will the Defenses Out Shine the Offenses?
In 2022, primetime under hit 61% of the time, including last year’s season opener between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams. I remember the hype surrounding that over like it was yesterday,… and the under hit by 11 points. I am getting a similar vibe for tonight’s NFL season opener between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, two high-powered offenses facing off on Thursday night.
Lions vs. Chiefs Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: September 7, 2023
- Time: 8:20 pm ET
- Where to Watch: NBC
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
Yes, the Lions and Chiefs have two of the most exciting offenses in the NFL. Jared Goff played great last season in what many would call a career year for him, and Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the league. In the last ten matchups between these two teams, the under has hit just once.
Since 2015, the Lions and Chiefs are 15-0-1 to the over in season openers. Goff is 4-2 to the over in season openers, and Mahomes is going for his sixth straight over in the first week of the NFL season. My contrarian brain is screaming under…
These trends are cool, but do they mean anything? This is the start of a new season; who cares what happened last season or the years prior? If anything, I like to fade these trends heading into a new season. Tonight, we will be fading both teams' over streaks in season openers.
The Chiefs have a new-look offensive line in 2023, which worries me. Their OL already wasn't great, to begin with, and now that a lot of their 2022 starting OL has moved on (along with their Offensive Coordinator), it may take the Chiefs a few weeks to figure it out in the trenches. Aidan Hutchinson should feast against a sketchy offensive line.
The Lions also upgraded their secondary this offseason, adding CJ Gardner-Johnson at SS. This Lions' defense (that was statistically the worst in football through the first half of the season) improved immensely in the latter half of the year and will be heading into this game with confidence after adding one of the best safeties in football.
The Chiefs' defense usually struggles out of the gate, but this had to be a talking point for Coach Reid this offseason. With a weaker OL and Travis Kelce likely out, the Chiefs can’t afford to give up 30 points in this contest. I’m not saying Mahomes is going to struggle tonight, but I do think the Lions pressure him enough that he won’t have enough time to light up the scoreboard.
Detroit had one of the most mistake-free offenses in football last year, but sending Goff to Arrowhead for a primetime game to open up the NFL season is a different level of pressure he typically doesn’t thrive in. Goff kept the melting to a minimum in 2022, which led to the majority of the Lions’ successes, but asking him to play mistake-free football in front of the Kansas City crowd is a lot of ask.
Expect both elite offenses to be off their game just enough tonight to cash this under. The public continues to hammer the over, but the total isn’t moving. Bet the under tonight and start your NFL season off with a winner.
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick
DET/KC u53.5 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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