Patrick Mahomes Player Props: Will Mahomes Struggle in Week 1 Against Lions?
Tonight we get the NFL back until February! Will Patrick Mahomes struggle in Week 1 against the Detroit Lions? NFL analyst Krabs breaks down the Chiefs vs. Lions game by sharing his best Patrick Mahomes player props.
Krabs - September 7, 2023, 4:23 PM EDT
7 minPatrick Mahomes Player Props: Will Mahomes Struggle in Week 1 Against Lions?
Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the NFL. There’s a reason he’s the highest-paid player in league history. That doesn’t mean he isn’t “fade-able” in the first game of the NFL season. Although he’s had great success in season openers before, this Detroit Lions defense is underrated and will be bringing the energy to Arrowhead Stadium tonight.
Lions vs. Chiefs Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: September 7, 2023
- Time: 8:20 pm ET
- Where to Watch: NBC
Patrick Mahomes Player Props
At around the halfway point of the NFL season last year, the Lions were on pace to give up the most points in NFL history. Their defense stepped it up a notch in the second half of the season. Between weeks 9-18, the Lions held opposing offenses to just 20 points per game. This young defense gained momentum throughout the season and should bring that new-found confidence to Kansas City.
I’m not saying to fade the Chiefs in this game: they are on an NFL-best eight-game win streak in season openers. Mahomes’ numbers are also incredible in season openers. He’s thrown 18 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in the first game of the season. What if I told you he’s throwing an interception tonight?
The Lions’ defense is underrated and undervalued in the betting market. Nobody in their right mind has the guts to bet Mahomes to throw an interception tonight (except me), and for good reason: he’s never thrown an interception in a season opener. This defensive line will take a step up in 2023 with Aidan Hutchinson, one of the best young DEs in the game, leading the charge. Their secondary got better in the offseason with the addition of CJ Gardner-Johnson, one of the best safeties in football. With a different-looking offensive line from 2022, Mahomes might have his work cut out for him tonight.
Not only am I betting Mahomes to throw an interception tonight, but I’ll also be fading him on his passing touchdowns line. The u2.5 is (-150) to the under, and for good reason: this Lions defense deserves more respect after their second half in 2022. The Chiefs’ offensive line, like I mentioned earlier, will have some new faces. It might take Andy Reid a few weeks to get this new OL up and running.
Mahomes to throw more than 2.5 passing touchdowns is one of the most popular prop bets of the night (per @johnewing). Neatly every single bet is on this over, but the juice in the under is sitting between (-150) and (-175), depending on where you look. The public saw the over sitting at plus money against the Lions and hammered it.
Fading the public is not the only thing that matters, but on opening night in the NFL (the most popular sport to bet on), it’s a great sign seeing the public hammering the over on Mahomes’ passing touchdowns prop. Although Mahomes is the best player in the league, let’s fade him behind a sketchy offensive line and without Travis Kelce.
Patrick Mahomes Player Props
- Patrick Mahomes to throw an INT -105 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Patrick Mahomes u2.5 passing TDs -150 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
NFL Odds
