NFL Same Game Parlay: A +1729 Monday Night Football SGP Built Around a Rookie
NFL Same Game Parlay: A +1729 Monday Night Football SGP Built Around a Rookie
Monday Night Football kicks off the season from East Rutherford, New Jersey, as the Jets host the Bills for game one from MetLife Stadium. The Bills are looking to be Super Bowl contenders this season with much of their talent returning from the 13-3 team from last season, including Josh Allen. On the flip side, the Jets look to rebound from a 7-10 last-place finish in the AFC East with lots of new talent in 2023, including future hall-of-famer Aaron Rodgers from the Packers. With this intriguing matchup between two teams in different situations entering the season, I have a same game parlay built around mostly new faces for both teams. This parlay was built over at FanDuel so these are all FanDuel odds. Let's get into it.
NFL Same Game Parlay - Jets vs. Bills
Leg One: Allen Lazard Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
It seems like everyone and their mother are hammering Garrett Wilson's props tonight. Personally, I like targeting someone who has a line set at less than half of Wilson's line of 69.5 yards, and that is Allen Lazard. Lazard will be the most familiar face for Rodgers in game one, as the two played together in Green Bay for five years. Randall Cobb also signed with the Jets, but Cobb is 33 years old and maybe nearing the end of his time in the NFL, and he is listed as a backup receiver.
Allen Lazard has a massive advantage in week one, as he is the most familiar with Rodgers and even offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who was the coordinator in Green Bay from 2019 through 2021. Lazard is an excellent blocker, and he has the most familiarity with Rodgers and Hackett's schemes. The transition is seamless, and with Rodgers not playing much at all in the preseason, I believe he will look for his familiar target early.
Leg Two: Stefon Diggs Under 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The WR 1 has his line set at 69.5 tonight, which is tied for the highest line with Garrett Wilson of the Jets. Diggs is one of the best receivers in the NFL, so it's not like this high line is not warranted, but that means we just get better value on the under in this spot.
Diggs passed 69.5 receiving yards in 11 of 16 games last season, hitting this line in 68% of his games, but this is a much more difficult matchup than usual. Diggs will be matched up against possibly the best cornerback duo in the NFL tonight, which includes Sauce Gardner, who is ranked as the top cornerback in the league on PFF.
In the two games against the Jets last season, Diggs passed this line once and went under once. In the game he passed, he was targeted ten times, and caught just five, going for 93 yards total. One of those was a huge 42-yard play, meaning he had 51 yards on the other four catches. In the game he missed, he had three receptions on five targets for just 37 yards.
With the Jets' defense making even more upgrades in the offseason, I expect them to pressure Allen often, which may limit the big play ability for the Bills with Allen having less time in the pocket. Sauce Gardner will also be on Diggs for the majority of this game, and that is a tough matchup for even the best receivers. Diggs can easily pass this line in a normal game, but 70 yards may be too tall an ask in this matchup tonight.
Leg Three: Dalton Kincaid Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Leg Four: Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+380)
For the last two legs of this parlay, we head to an over on a Bills player, specifically the rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid was taken in the first round of the draft by the Bills, and their draft pick voices their thoughts on how they will use Kincaid.
Last season, Knox was third on the Bills with 517 receiving yards and also third in receiving touchdowns with six. Allen loves to use tight end screens when he's in trouble, and he also loves to target tight ends in the red zone. That will be especially true against the Jets tonight. With the Jets having the best cornerback duo in the NFL, teams will have to beat them across the middle and on short passes to the flat. Enter Kincaid.
Kincaid is an athletic tight end from Utah who can light up a box score with nice hands. I believe the Bills took him in the first round because they want to use him as more of the receiving tight end and use Knox as more of the blocking tight end. This is reflected by the odds as well, as Knox is listed at 18.5 receiving yards, while Kincaid is at 27.5. With the offensive line needing some help against the front line of the Jets, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of two-tight end sets from the Bills to help with blocking. That means Kincaid should see a lot of snaps tonight no matter what. I am buying in on the Bills' first-round pick and expect them to go to him early in this game against a formidable Jets' secondary.
NFL Same Game Parlay
Four-leg Same Game Parlay (+1729)
- Leg One: Allen Lazard Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Leg Two: Stefon Diggs Under 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Leg Three: Dalton Kincaid Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Leg Four: Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+380)
NFL Odds
Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.