Week 3 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 3 of the Season?
Week 3 is finally here! NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season.
Matt MacKay - September 21, 2023, 1:28 PM EDT
7 minWeek 3 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 3 of the Season?
After an 0-4 start with NFL picks in Week 1, we bounced back in Week 2, going 3-1 and gaining six units. The NFL schedule continues to be filled, as Bye Weeks don't begin until Week 5, which means we have 16 more games to wager in Week 3.
Injuries are piling up all around the league, with some teams have settled into a rhythm while others continue to sputter. Oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook have released the lines for Week 3, and there are some lopsided matchups expected to occur, starting with the San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. with the 49ers laying 10.5 points as home favorites against an injury-plagued Giants offense.
Other interesting lines worth noting include the expected point totals, which are pretty low, excluding the Chargers vs. Vikings game, set at 53.5 points with -118 odds on the over. Two other matchups are set at 48.5 points, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears and the Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins. Three total games have double-digit spreads, with the other two including the Bears (+12.5) vs. Chiefs and Cowboys (-12.5) vs. Cardinals.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back with his favorite bets to place on several of these Week 3 matchups.
Week 3 NFL Picks
New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Giants' offense, which has already been held scoreless for six quarters through two games, will be without starting left tackle Andrew Thomas and star running back Saquon Barkley on Thursday night. Factor in the hostile road game environment against the 49ers' defense, which is arguably the best in the league, and it paints a bleak picture for Daniel Jones and the G-Men to stay competitive.
A miraculous comeback win against the Cardinals on the road last week should give the Giants momentum and confidence, but this only goes so far. San Francisco plays its first home game of the season, where they have covered the spread in 11 straight games against NFC opponents. -10.5 is a big number to lay, but we're talking about the 49ers against a decimated, volatile Giants offense, so let's lock in our wagers on the 49ers to cover as -10.5-point home favorites on Thursday night.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions
Two talented NFC teams will meet at Ford Field in Week 3, as the Atlanta Falcons are 2-0 following an impressive comeback win at home over the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are 1-1, beating the Chiefs during the first game of the 2023 season on the road but failing to stop Seattle's late surge in Week 2, losing a high-scoring shootout at home in overtime.
This matchup projects to be much more run-centric, especially with the Falcons' play calling, relying on dynamic rookie running back Bijan Robinson behind a highly paid, underrated offensive line. Atlanta has lost six consecutive games as an underdog, and they enter Ford Field as 3-point underdogs ATS. However, the line to bet in this game is the point total, which is set to 46.5.
The under has cashed in six of Atlanta's last seven road games against the Lions, while also cashing in eight of the Falcons' last nine games as underdogs. Both of these teams went under 46.5 in Week 1, while going over 46.5 in Week 2. We can expect a slower-paced, run-centric attack from both offenses, so let's throw a couple units on under 46.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Now, we get the highest point total line of the Week 3 slate, as two 0-2 opponents face off in a dome environment in Minneapolis. The Vikings and Chargers both have porous pass defenses, with two quality quarterbacks who can sling the ball around the field, so 53.5 as the point total makes a lot of sense.
The Vikings have won eight consecutive games SU as home favorites against AFC opponents, while the Chargers have covered the spread as road underdogs against NFC opponents in six straight matchups. Currently, the Chargers are +1.5 on the road in Minnesota. The moneyline odds are virtually a pick'em, with the Vikings sitting at -110 versus -106 for the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Chargers have -115 odds at +1.5.
This game could easily wind up with Minnesota winning by one point, which would check both boxes, but if we're picking only one best bet to wager, let's side with less juice and take the Vikings to finally record a win outright at -110 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This Sunday Night Football matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders could be a highly entertaining game to watch.
On the one hand, Pittsburgh's offense looks stale and anemic, relying on T.J. Watt and the Steelers defense to seal a late win over Cleveland on Monday Night Football in Week 2. The Raiders got routed by the Bills in Week 2 after seizing a 17-16 road win against Denver in Week 1. Neither of these quarterbacks, Kenny Pickett and Jimmy Garoppolo, have looked good, while the Raiders' defense looks like one of the worst units in football.
Pittsburgh could have something in second-year running back Jaylen Warren, who may wind up replacing Najee Harris sooner than later. For now, without DIontae Johnson in the lineup, we can expect Pickett to turn to wideout George Pickens, who he connected with on a 71-yard touchdown to break the game open against the Browns in Week 2. Josh Jacobs is the focal point of the Raiders' offensive identity, but he won't have an easy outing against Watt and the rest of the Steelers' defense.
Head-to-head matchup and trends suggest the Steelers are the team to back in this game on Sunday Night Football. Pittsburgh has won five of its last six games SU while covering the spread in each of its last four road games. They are +2.5-point underdogs ATS, which is -105 odds at FanDuel, versus +120 moneyline odds. Pickett beat the Raiders at home last season 13-10, and the Steelers have four consecutive road wins entering Sunday night, so let's throw a couple units on Pittsburgh to win their first road game of the season against the Raiders to wrap up Sunday's Week 3 NFL slate.
Week 3 NFL Picks
- New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers: 49ers -10.5 (-115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions: Under 46.5 (-115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings: Vikings Moneyline (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders: Steelers Moneyline (+120) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
NFL Odds
